* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042024 08/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 55 64 72 82 85 84 82 79 73 67 61 51 47 40 36 V (KT) LAND 40 47 55 64 72 82 60 38 35 32 26 20 19 24 26 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 47 55 62 70 81 61 38 36 42 48 52 41 32 28 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 8 7 7 13 11 17 6 3 9 8 11 13 6 3 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -3 3 4 5 0 -3 0 -1 5 5 SHEAR DIR 290 309 312 254 241 292 275 298 232 21 121 29 55 48 35 49 214 SST (C) 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.8 31.5 29.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 28.8 29.3 27.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 171 171 171 170 169 165 152 153 153 154 161 148 157 126 100 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 9 7 10 8 11 8 9 7 7 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 67 65 56 55 49 56 55 55 57 63 69 71 67 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 21 22 23 22 21 23 25 25 24 22 18 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 24 12 12 25 31 -6 4 -11 16 36 69 63 60 13 32 29 80 200 MB DIV 46 35 42 58 66 40 65 14 17 9 42 17 68 40 85 36 50 700-850 TADV 1 -3 2 7 6 7 2 2 5 5 0 -5 -4 -5 -9 -26 -66 LAND (KM) 100 219 226 184 154 70 -61 -83 22 90 89 48 -40 -88 -34 3 4 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.9 25.9 26.8 27.7 29.2 30.3 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.3 32.0 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.8 84.3 84.3 84.4 84.0 83.2 82.4 81.3 80.5 80.3 80.2 80.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 7 5 5 4 2 3 4 7 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 67 54 59 52 48 74 17 4 28 21 21 22 25 4 4 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. -4. -7. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 19. 15. 9. 3. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 32. 42. 45. 44. 43. 39. 33. 27. 21. 11. 7. 0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.9 83.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.84 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.88 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 5.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 55.7% 39.2% 23.7% 10.5% 37.8% 39.6% 40.8% Logistic: 21.8% 66.4% 55.3% 45.8% 20.6% 47.0% 37.6% 15.1% Bayesian: 13.7% 34.4% 20.1% 22.0% 3.0% 6.4% 2.4% 0.1% Consensus: 15.1% 52.2% 38.2% 30.5% 11.4% 30.4% 26.5% 18.7% DTOPS: 9.0% 42.0% 18.0% 14.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 12.0% 47.1% 28.1% 22.2% 7.7% 17.2% 13.2% 9.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/04/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 8( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 47 55 64 72 82 60 38 35 32 26 20 19 24 26 29 27 18HR AGO 40 39 47 56 64 74 52 30 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 45 53 63 41 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 38 48 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT