* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042024 08/03/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 51 60 68 69 70 66 67 67 60 53 48 45 42 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 51 60 49 34 29 29 30 30 25 26 26 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 44 53 44 32 29 33 38 43 37 31 28 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 13 9 7 14 10 18 6 9 9 7 13 12 12 3 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 -2 -1 2 -2 -2 2 0 5 1 1 -3 1 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 306 276 311 316 254 271 275 272 262 283 107 118 61 48 72 349 244 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.1 31.8 31.6 30.0 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.8 28.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 172 171 171 170 170 168 160 153 150 154 154 146 148 144 99 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 7 9 7 9 7 11 9 11 7 8 3 2 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 65 64 56 54 48 56 55 59 55 58 63 64 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 18 22 24 24 23 24 23 25 26 23 20 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 24 21 14 15 29 0 17 -16 17 7 56 39 54 44 62 63 55 200 MB DIV 32 45 26 45 69 61 29 16 31 -2 27 18 3 46 89 70 50 700-850 TADV 1 0 -7 1 10 3 6 1 5 5 2 7 1 -5 -19 -33 -25 LAND (KM) 26 150 235 193 165 78 -57 -102 -23 34 75 57 -40 -79 -74 -39 17 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.3 25.4 26.4 27.3 29.2 30.4 31.1 31.7 31.7 31.4 31.9 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.6 83.3 84.0 84.2 84.4 84.1 83.5 82.6 81.4 80.7 80.4 80.2 79.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 8 6 6 5 2 1 5 7 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 129 51 57 53 49 71 7 4 31 24 21 22 24 7 4 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 10. 11. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 7. 9. 7. 9. 10. 4. -0. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 21. 30. 38. 39. 40. 36. 37. 37. 30. 23. 18. 15. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.3 82.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 FOUR 08/03/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.98 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 33.0% 16.7% 9.1% 6.3% 13.3% 16.8% 24.7% Logistic: 5.3% 22.8% 11.9% 4.7% 1.3% 9.5% 14.0% 4.7% Bayesian: 1.9% 6.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 20.7% 10.2% 5.0% 2.6% 7.7% 10.5% 9.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 16.8% 7.6% 3.5% 1.8% 5.8% 5.2% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 FOUR 08/03/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 FOUR 08/03/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 43 51 60 49 34 29 29 30 30 25 26 26 27 29 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 47 56 45 30 25 25 26 26 21 22 22 23 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 40 49 38 23 18 18 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 28 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT