* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042024 08/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 41 54 62 69 72 74 75 74 68 61 51 45 40 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 43 55 64 40 31 36 37 36 30 23 16 21 16 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 30 33 36 43 48 34 29 35 40 45 47 48 41 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 4 10 6 9 13 13 16 11 6 14 3 17 20 8 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 0 0 1 0 0 -3 3 0 0 3 3 -1 6 6 SHEAR DIR 328 329 279 306 326 242 270 246 263 197 227 129 56 64 67 121 212 SST (C) 30.8 30.7 30.4 30.8 31.1 31.4 31.8 30.2 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.3 26.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 172 171 170 170 156 152 154 149 143 139 141 118 106 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -51.5 -51.5 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 9 6 10 7 10 7 10 6 3 0 700-500 MB RH 65 68 68 65 65 64 54 53 49 57 58 61 64 61 63 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 14 17 21 21 22 24 27 28 29 26 24 21 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 9 23 24 6 8 26 -9 7 -4 28 26 28 0 2 17 17 23 200 MB DIV -12 19 36 27 38 80 41 78 11 36 12 30 -1 33 80 105 26 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 -4 3 4 7 1 0 5 0 3 1 -2 -16 -49 -64 LAND (KM) -13 1 111 223 192 125 12 -102 -17 43 53 53 64 31 -21 43 71 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.2 24.0 25.1 26.2 28.1 29.5 30.7 31.0 31.4 32.0 32.5 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.4 83.3 83.7 84.1 84.1 83.5 82.6 81.7 80.8 80.1 79.3 78.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 12 11 8 7 6 4 4 5 4 4 6 9 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 74 139 61 51 54 53 66 4 31 22 21 19 16 14 16 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 4. 9. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. 17. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 13. 16. 19. 18. 14. 9. 4. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 16. 29. 37. 44. 47. 49. 50. 49. 43. 36. 26. 20. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.3 81.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 FOUR 08/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.5 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 19.1% 11.5% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 32.3% 20.5% 9.7% 3.6% 15.7% 19.0% 10.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 4.1% 18.0% 11.0% 6.0% 1.3% 5.3% 11.3% 3.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 11.5% 6.5% 3.5% .6% 5.1% 6.6% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 FOUR 08/03/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 FOUR 08/03/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 32 36 43 55 64 40 31 36 37 36 30 23 16 21 16 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 38 50 59 35 26 31 32 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 32 44 53 29 20 25 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 22 34 43 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT