* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042024 08/03/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 38 51 59 64 65 67 70 71 70 67 62 58 60 V (KT) LAND 25 24 27 31 36 50 58 44 32 34 36 38 37 34 29 24 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 24 29 32 39 45 37 30 33 37 41 46 50 52 53 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 4 4 8 4 11 12 18 5 13 11 8 13 10 1 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -2 0 0 2 -5 3 4 -1 2 0 -1 -6 5 7 SHEAR DIR 296 331 317 292 324 231 256 255 262 254 227 121 120 51 24 345 237 SST (C) 30.0 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.9 31.6 31.6 31.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.4 28.2 28.5 26.7 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 173 173 172 172 171 170 169 156 156 156 154 140 139 144 123 103 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 9 7 10 7 11 8 12 6 5 0 700-500 MB RH 61 63 67 66 64 65 56 57 50 55 51 53 52 57 61 57 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 19 20 19 20 22 24 25 25 24 23 21 26 850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 17 13 7 18 -6 10 -19 29 2 59 37 41 41 51 37 200 MB DIV 13 -17 18 40 28 68 61 22 29 37 -16 22 18 16 86 111 71 700-850 TADV -6 -6 1 0 -4 10 2 6 0 5 1 6 7 3 -1 -26 5 LAND (KM) 33 -26 16 148 216 138 62 -76 -45 16 44 45 49 38 20 145 78 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.4 23.3 24.4 25.4 27.3 29.0 30.2 30.8 31.3 31.8 32.3 32.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.2 81.3 82.4 83.1 83.8 84.1 83.7 82.9 82.0 81.2 80.5 79.8 78.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 8 11 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 44 63 126 47 51 54 78 16 15 26 22 22 13 14 13 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 7. 7. 7. 10. 13. 13. 12. 9. 7. 4. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 26. 34. 39. 40. 42. 45. 46. 45. 42. 37. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.5 80.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 FOUR 08/03/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.90 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.2 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 24.5% 12.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 45.9% 31.6% 13.3% 6.2% 25.0% 28.1% 24.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 4.5% 24.5% 14.9% 7.3% 2.1% 8.4% 16.0% 8.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 14.2% 8.4% 4.1% 1.0% 5.7% 8.5% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 FOUR 08/03/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 FOUR 08/03/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 27 31 36 50 58 44 32 34 36 38 37 34 29 24 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 50 58 44 32 34 36 38 37 34 29 24 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 44 52 38 26 28 30 32 31 28 23 18 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 34 42 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT