* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042024 08/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 62 66 70 71 74 75 77 77 71 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 31 36 48 58 45 38 40 42 44 46 45 40 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 24 28 31 38 46 39 31 39 45 51 56 60 63 69 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 8 3 1 5 5 14 15 15 13 4 7 4 4 2 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -5 -2 0 3 -1 1 2 8 5 9 4 -1 9 18 SHEAR DIR 211 285 327 317 271 350 237 268 250 264 209 220 109 182 106 45 221 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.6 30.6 30.6 31.7 31.6 30.9 29.2 29.4 29.2 28.3 28.7 28.3 28.3 27.9 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 172 172 172 171 171 170 154 157 153 141 146 140 141 138 92 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -50.1 -50.2 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 9 6 10 7 10 6 7 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 66 67 67 65 57 54 49 51 51 50 54 55 55 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 13 16 20 19 20 22 26 27 28 29 27 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 30 10 0 14 18 1 16 -19 -2 -22 7 44 64 23 11 18 37 200 MB DIV 24 13 -18 19 55 46 69 30 74 20 20 1 51 40 70 80 78 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -5 0 1 2 7 6 2 0 9 12 19 9 -23 11 11 LAND (KM) 65 3 -38 47 165 124 53 -65 3 42 41 66 46 104 200 321 255 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.9 22.7 23.6 24.5 26.5 28.4 29.7 30.8 31.7 32.4 33.3 34.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.1 80.2 81.3 82.2 83.2 83.5 83.3 82.6 81.5 80.6 79.7 78.2 76.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 11 10 8 7 7 6 6 9 9 7 9 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 62 98 46 61 84 21 31 21 21 16 24 9 17 33 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. 19. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 6. 7. 11. 15. 15. 16. 15. 11. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 27. 37. 41. 45. 46. 49. 50. 52. 52. 46. 51. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.0 79.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 FOUR 08/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.95 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 41.3% 25.8% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 26.1% 0.0% Logistic: 13.2% 71.6% 62.0% 42.2% 26.7% 54.3% 55.9% 47.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.4% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 3.4% 2.5% Consensus: 6.0% 39.1% 30.0% 17.6% 8.9% 18.2% 28.5% 16.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 21.0% 15.5% 9.3% 4.4% 9.6% 14.7% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 FOUR 08/03/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 FOUR 08/03/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 31 36 48 58 45 38 40 42 44 46 45 40 45 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 31 36 48 58 45 38 40 42 44 46 45 40 45 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 32 44 54 41 34 36 38 40 42 41 36 41 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 32 42 29 22 24 26 28 30 29 24 29 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT