* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042024 08/02/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 35 43 55 63 73 75 81 82 81 82 82 83 74 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 30 34 42 54 46 33 33 39 40 39 40 40 41 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 29 31 36 43 39 31 32 35 39 42 47 50 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 7 3 3 6 14 18 24 9 5 12 17 13 9 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -7 -5 -5 0 -2 5 -3 1 4 8 9 4 12 0 4 SHEAR DIR 297 255 297 337 323 316 208 248 243 255 204 172 81 330 339 271 214 SST (C) 30.2 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.7 31.5 31.5 31.2 29.6 29.7 29.4 28.4 28.1 28.5 28.1 28.0 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 172 172 172 171 171 160 161 156 142 137 143 138 138 97 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -51.1 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 10 6 10 8 12 6 8 4 3 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 64 67 64 61 53 50 46 49 43 47 47 47 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 10 11 11 15 17 21 22 26 26 26 27 30 32 27 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 0 -10 8 0 24 -12 10 -23 20 31 86 69 56 -40 -40 200 MB DIV 29 12 3 -9 32 12 50 71 46 28 23 -12 46 29 20 21 56 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 1 -2 9 1 5 0 3 7 28 43 36 23 -7 LAND (KM) -32 -14 -46 21 103 139 88 -60 -28 4 30 40 36 43 121 281 243 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.8 22.5 23.3 24.1 26.1 28.2 30.0 31.2 31.8 32.2 32.9 34.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.6 78.9 80.2 81.2 82.3 83.4 83.7 82.9 81.8 81.0 80.2 79.0 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 6 4 5 8 9 7 9 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 47 54 59 55 67 30 26 28 23 14 13 10 12 33 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 21. 21. 19. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 13. 14. 20. 18. 16. 17. 19. 20. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 18. 30. 38. 48. 50. 56. 57. 56. 57. 57. 58. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.0 77.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 FOUR 08/02/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.94 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.6 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 17.8% 11.3% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 26.5% 14.6% 4.5% 1.8% 12.1% 33.5% 18.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 16.0% 9.1% 4.2% 0.7% 4.2% 18.1% 6.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 9.0% 5.0% 2.6% .3% 2.6% 9.5% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 FOUR 08/02/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 FOUR 08/02/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 30 34 42 54 46 33 33 39 40 39 40 40 41 32 18HR AGO 25 24 25 29 33 41 53 45 32 32 38 39 38 39 39 40 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 37 49 41 28 28 34 35 34 35 35 36 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 39 31 18 18 24 25 24 25 25 26 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT