* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL042024 08/02/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 49 58 65 75 80 84 84 86 82 84 89 88 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 30 42 50 58 41 32 38 38 35 36 38 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 29 34 41 49 38 30 34 38 36 41 43 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 3 4 6 5 1 4 8 18 20 13 8 16 7 20 5 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 -3 -7 -5 -3 0 4 -2 2 3 8 2 18 6 11 -3 SHEAR DIR 297 300 242 311 328 249 282 219 251 248 251 200 71 46 2 290 279 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 30.4 30.2 30.4 30.9 31.9 31.6 30.6 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.4 28.3 27.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 166 173 173 172 172 171 171 170 162 156 154 149 141 140 129 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -52.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 7 9 7 10 8 10 4 6 3 700-500 MB RH 57 59 62 60 64 65 62 61 51 51 48 50 47 46 45 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 11 9 9 13 13 14 20 23 26 26 27 26 30 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 9 17 17 -4 -11 4 0 19 -19 0 3 20 76 83 115 21 -62 200 MB DIV 11 30 14 2 -12 43 24 28 37 86 1 22 2 19 -2 2 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -5 -6 -1 1 0 4 3 0 0 5 15 21 30 21 8 LAND (KM) -20 -30 -32 -20 16 140 81 59 -105 -30 36 50 -6 16 15 48 149 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 11 9 9 7 6 4 4 5 7 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 40 48 45 49 47 76 73 6 29 22 22 20 18 15 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 22. 23. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 12. 17. 21. 20. 20. 17. 21. 25. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 24. 33. 40. 50. 55. 59. 59. 61. 57. 59. 64. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.6 75.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 INVEST 08/02/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.93 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.97 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 18.4% 11.6% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 21.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 36.8% 23.1% 8.7% 4.3% 25.5% 53.3% 43.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 11.4% 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 2.9% 0.9% Consensus: 3.1% 22.2% 12.8% 5.8% 1.5% 8.9% 25.8% 14.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 11.6% 6.9% 2.9% .7% 4.4% 12.9% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 INVEST 08/02/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 INVEST 08/02/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 30 42 50 58 41 32 38 38 35 36 38 41 40 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 29 41 49 57 40 31 37 37 34 35 37 40 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 25 37 45 53 36 27 33 33 30 31 33 36 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 31 39 47 30 21 27 27 24 25 27 30 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT