* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/08/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 77 76 72 62 51 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 56 44 36 32 28 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 59 45 37 32 28 27 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 21 35 44 50 47 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 4 0 -5 4 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 252 217 211 217 213 222 218 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.8 31.5 32.0 32.1 31.4 31.0 29.6 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 173 173 174 164 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -49.7 -49.9 -49.8 -49.3 -49.2 -49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 10 5 7 2 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 57 60 57 52 49 51 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 22 21 21 19 17 13 13 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 15 8 0 -6 -7 6 97 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 61 80 58 30 29 27 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 3 7 9 8 -14 -3 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 51 -66 -162 -241 -342 -542 -741 -925 -716 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.3 30.4 31.6 32.7 34.9 37.3 39.6 41.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.3 94.7 92.4 89.5 86.3 82.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 36 7 8 8 6 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -4. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -10. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 6. 2. -8. -19. -26. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.2 95.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/08/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.28 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 325.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.59 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.62 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.86 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 15.7% 10.3% 7.8% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 3.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 6.5% 4.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/08/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/08/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 56 44 36 32 28 27 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 57 49 45 41 40 41 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 58 54 50 49 50 51 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 52 51 52 53 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT