* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/08/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 67 67 62 52 43 36 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 51 41 35 29 28 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 53 42 35 29 27 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 13 16 19 32 43 48 49 63 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 4 4 4 -6 1 0 -2 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 263 259 214 215 217 216 219 219 228 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.7 31.5 32.0 32.1 31.0 30.1 28.2 28.4 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 172 172 172 173 174 174 142 144 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7 -49.0 -49.6 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 9 11 10 3 7 1 6 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 57 61 57 52 50 55 54 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 21 19 20 18 14 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 11 18 14 8 -15 -9 50 75 48 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 54 60 67 55 22 20 29 33 21 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 11 -1 7 16 4 -7 -20 -12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 162 60 -58 -140 -227 -427 -620 -829 -817 -630 -529 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.2 29.2 30.3 31.3 33.6 35.9 38.2 40.8 42.6 44.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 95.8 96.0 95.8 95.5 93.8 91.2 88.0 84.3 81.3 78.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 11 12 14 16 18 17 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 40 41 7 7 7 6 5 2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -0. -0. -2. -8. -12. -15. -19. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 7. 7. 2. -8. -17. -24. -33. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 27.1 95.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/08/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.49 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.68 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.87 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 28.4% 12.6% 9.2% 7.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 9.2% 6.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 12.6% 6.4% 4.0% 2.6% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 6.3% 3.2% 2.0% 1.3% 2.0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/08/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/08/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 51 41 35 29 28 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 47 37 31 25 24 24 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 46 40 34 33 33 34 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 44 38 37 37 38 39 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT