* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/07/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 65 66 64 57 49 39 34 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 50 40 31 28 27 29 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 52 41 31 28 27 29 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 10 14 22 40 45 50 55 60 58 53 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 4 2 0 -2 0 0 -4 -7 -7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 125 185 248 248 218 218 212 218 221 224 229 224 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.5 30.6 30.7 31.4 32.1 31.8 31.0 29.9 28.2 28.3 22.1 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 172 172 172 172 173 173 170 141 142 87 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -50.5 -50.5 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 10 9 11 5 7 2 7 1 6 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 51 54 58 58 53 49 49 49 44 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 19 19 18 15 13 9 10 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 9 21 14 11 -19 2 -11 55 19 5 -45 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 42 60 43 70 34 26 25 19 7 18 16 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 6 7 -6 10 13 -10 -17 -15 -5 9 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 187 143 38 -67 -172 -334 -568 -782 -995 -927 -743 -636 -512 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.2 28.1 29.3 30.4 32.5 34.9 37.5 39.7 41.8 43.8 45.4 46.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.7 96.2 96.1 96.1 95.2 93.1 90.4 88.1 85.3 82.1 79.8 78.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 13 16 16 15 15 13 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 44 38 30 7 8 7 6 5 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -16. -17. -22. -23. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 9. 2. -6. -16. -21. -30. -33. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 26.3 95.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/07/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.68 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 37.6% 20.5% 9.8% 7.5% 12.7% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 17.4% 12.2% 3.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 18.4% 10.9% 4.5% 2.9% 4.5% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.9% 9.2% 5.4% 2.2% 1.4% 2.2% 1.6% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/07/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/07/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 50 40 31 28 27 29 29 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 57 46 36 27 24 23 25 25 26 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 40 30 21 18 17 19 19 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 35 26 23 22 24 24 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT