* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/07/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 56 58 64 63 57 58 49 41 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 56 58 42 32 28 27 27 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 54 57 43 32 28 27 27 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 3 4 8 17 39 49 47 51 48 53 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 0 2 5 3 0 3 1 1 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 207 183 210 260 208 217 213 224 220 218 211 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.5 30.8 32.0 32.2 31.1 31.0 29.7 28.6 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 171 171 171 171 172 172 172 172 165 147 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -50.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -49.7 -49.8 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 12 10 11 7 7 3 6 1 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 55 52 48 54 54 50 40 41 39 40 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 16 17 15 19 19 17 22 20 17 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -23 -14 -1 23 36 4 23 16 56 40 52 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 0 20 21 55 56 34 28 28 19 -12 -5 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 1 -1 10 7 6 9 -6 1 1 0 0 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 302 233 175 160 72 -114 -266 -412 -583 -711 -852 -870 -753 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.6 26.2 27.0 27.7 29.6 31.5 33.4 35.3 36.9 38.4 40.1 42.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.8 95.4 95.8 96.2 96.5 95.9 94.4 92.4 90.1 87.6 85.3 83.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 46 41 41 37 12 7 8 6 6 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. -1. -4. 2. -2. -7. -13. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 8. 14. 13. 7. 8. -1. -9. -17. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.9 94.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/07/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.84 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.63 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.66 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.85 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 35.0% 18.9% 9.9% 7.9% 17.3% 12.9% 10.7% Logistic: 4.3% 14.0% 10.6% 2.5% 0.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 16.5% 9.9% 4.1% 2.8% 6.4% 4.5% 3.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 13.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.3% 14.7% 8.9% 4.0% 2.9% 3.2% 2.2% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/07/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/07/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 56 58 42 32 28 27 27 28 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 56 40 30 26 25 25 26 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 51 35 25 21 20 20 21 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT