* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/06/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 52 53 56 59 64 66 68 57 51 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 52 53 56 59 64 44 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 52 52 55 61 43 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 11 7 3 10 20 22 34 32 37 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -3 -7 -1 4 3 3 2 -2 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 203 192 208 201 227 260 216 212 202 217 221 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.8 31.7 32.2 32.1 31.0 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 160 164 167 163 170 171 171 171 171 171 172 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -50.5 -51.0 -50.9 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 13 10 11 5 8 4 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 56 57 55 53 58 56 55 52 52 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 17 17 15 17 17 19 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -1 -2 -9 -11 0 28 8 -18 -33 -61 -25 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 15 21 9 -5 -8 38 50 54 16 24 38 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 8 5 1 5 -5 20 6 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 238 350 406 321 236 106 41 -98 -248 -320 -390 -465 -629 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.4 24.9 26.2 27.6 29.3 31.1 32.4 33.3 34.5 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.9 92.8 93.7 94.3 95.0 96.1 96.8 96.8 96.3 95.1 93.1 91.1 89.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 33 34 38 41 35 36 14 7 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -0. -9. -13. -17. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 18. 7. 1. -5. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.6 91.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/06/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.60 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.83 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 15.6% 10.1% 7.6% 5.8% 12.7% 14.5% 20.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.4% 7.6% 4.7% 1.2% 4.5% 2.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 8.5% 6.0% 4.1% 2.4% 5.8% 5.7% 6.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.5% 6.2% 4.0% 2.5% 1.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/06/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/06/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 52 53 56 59 64 44 32 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 55 58 63 43 31 27 26 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 50 53 58 38 26 22 21 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 46 51 31 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT