* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 53 56 61 62 65 67 67 56 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 53 56 61 62 65 52 35 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 51 52 55 58 64 54 36 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 11 12 12 8 4 8 13 23 35 33 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 1 1 0 -7 -1 4 6 2 3 -5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 217 204 184 184 204 259 288 225 222 212 222 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.8 30.3 30.8 30.8 31.5 32.1 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 148 155 159 160 157 165 170 170 170 170 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.6 -50.3 -50.9 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 11 9 13 10 12 6 8 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 60 57 56 54 54 56 56 56 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 18 19 20 17 18 17 18 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -10 3 9 -4 1 17 34 18 15 -3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 4 -9 3 28 11 -11 50 51 32 30 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 7 -1 4 8 -2 2 -7 7 2 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 11 113 230 346 406 236 96 55 -51 -160 -258 -313 -358 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.2 23.8 24.7 25.8 27.1 28.4 29.8 31.1 32.1 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.7 90.8 91.9 92.8 93.7 95.1 96.2 96.9 97.2 97.1 96.5 95.7 94.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 16 27 32 31 35 33 35 50 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -6. -5. -13. -17. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 12. 15. 17. 17. 6. 0. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.4 89.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/06/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.55 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 14.9% 9.7% 7.7% 5.8% 12.3% 13.5% 20.3% Logistic: 1.6% 3.3% 2.5% 2.4% 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.8% 6.2% 4.1% 3.4% 2.1% 5.0% 5.4% 6.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.4% 4.1% 2.5% 2.2% 1.0% 2.5% 2.7% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/06/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/06/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 53 56 61 62 65 52 35 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 55 60 61 64 51 34 28 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 51 56 57 60 47 30 24 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 48 49 52 39 22 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT