* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 52 52 53 57 60 61 68 69 66 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 55 55 56 60 63 64 53 36 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 50 48 47 49 51 55 48 34 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 13 12 8 2 8 6 19 21 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 0 -1 1 -5 -2 -1 1 3 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 188 214 213 197 205 231 310 234 226 200 229 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 30.2 30.9 31.2 31.0 30.9 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 143 149 157 157 158 159 170 170 169 169 170 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 9 9 11 11 13 9 9 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 58 59 56 57 51 53 56 56 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 17 16 16 15 17 16 14 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -9 -12 -10 7 0 6 -7 40 44 28 10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 30 8 5 0 11 9 22 41 47 39 7 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 11 12 0 6 4 -1 -1 0 0 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -60 24 134 245 358 291 135 30 -30 -112 -175 -228 -311 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.6 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.2 27.5 28.5 29.5 30.5 31.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.8 90.0 91.1 92.1 93.0 94.8 96.0 96.9 97.7 98.0 97.7 97.1 96.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 29 32 34 32 34 49 12 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -10. -9. -6. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -5. -8. -12. -18. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -8. -6. -3. -0. 1. 8. 9. 6. 0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.9 88.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/05/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.18 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.44 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.87 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 10.6% 6.2% 5.2% 4.3% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.8% 1.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 19.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 7.2% 4.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.9% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.6% 2.0% 1.3% 1.2% .9% 2.0% .3% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/05/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/05/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 56 55 55 56 60 63 64 53 36 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 58 59 63 66 67 56 39 33 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 57 61 64 65 54 37 31 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 55 58 59 48 31 25 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT