* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/05/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 73 72 71 72 74 76 80 82 85 77 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 59 56 55 55 56 58 59 45 34 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 58 54 54 53 55 58 62 50 35 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 17 16 13 12 6 0 6 15 12 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 0 -1 1 -7 1 3 3 2 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 208 195 220 213 192 167 304 275 233 235 216 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.0 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.9 30.6 31.3 31.4 31.2 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 138 145 149 155 156 156 167 170 169 169 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.4 -50.6 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 9 8 10 8 13 10 13 8 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 59 58 58 57 56 50 55 53 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 16 15 16 17 16 17 17 19 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -10 -6 -5 -6 14 11 19 34 41 36 20 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 19 26 13 6 0 5 18 39 45 15 30 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 15 9 0 7 0 3 -7 6 1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -35 -63 16 128 254 360 197 48 -25 -106 -163 -227 -295 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.5 24.3 25.4 26.8 27.8 28.5 29.5 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.9 90.1 91.2 92.3 94.2 95.7 96.8 97.7 98.4 98.7 98.5 97.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 7 5 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 18 22 19 33 30 34 31 44 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -3. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -11. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. 0. 2. 5. -3. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.4 87.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/05/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 473.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.44 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.95 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 8.9% 5.8% 4.8% 4.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.2% 2.6% 2.2% 1.7% 3.5% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.1% 1.3% 1.1% .8% 1.7% .2% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/05/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/05/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 59 56 55 55 56 58 59 45 34 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 76 75 75 76 78 79 65 54 49 47 47 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 75 76 78 79 65 54 49 47 47 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 71 73 74 60 49 44 42 42 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT