* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/05/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 91 88 85 81 78 77 77 83 81 77 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 81 60 48 50 46 44 42 42 32 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 93 61 48 52 53 55 57 63 43 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 14 18 19 12 9 3 3 7 15 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 6 0 3 -4 -4 3 0 5 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 241 223 200 229 208 205 192 266 235 237 203 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.7 28.0 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.4 31.6 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 148 137 146 151 153 153 159 170 170 170 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 11 11 13 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 63 60 60 58 60 53 54 56 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 16 16 18 17 16 14 17 16 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -3 -3 -10 -11 11 15 18 8 46 31 20 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 29 16 17 10 14 18 3 14 25 56 35 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 -2 -2 14 11 8 2 0 0 0 -5 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 128 -1 -94 -20 87 334 299 155 20 -68 -153 -220 -261 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.4 26.4 27.5 28.6 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.2 87.5 88.7 89.8 91.0 93.1 94.8 96.1 97.1 98.1 99.0 99.3 98.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 10 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 25 6 26 21 29 31 36 32 16 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -9. -5. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -6. -9. -12. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -18. -18. -12. -14. -18. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.8 86.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/05/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 559.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.35 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 11.7% 8.3% 7.1% 6.2% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 5.4% 3.6% 5.3% 3.8% 5.2% 2.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 2.1% 3.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 6.9% 4.5% 4.2% 3.4% 4.8% 0.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 3.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 2.4% .4% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/05/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/05/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 0( 17) 0( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 0( 19) 0( 19) 0( 19) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 81 60 48 50 46 44 42 42 32 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 73 61 63 59 57 55 55 45 42 40 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 79 81 77 75 73 73 63 60 58 58 31 31 31 31 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 87 83 81 79 79 69 66 64 64 37 37 37 37 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 72 70 68 68 58 55 53 53 26 26 26 26 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT