* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/05/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 90 87 84 78 74 73 71 67 68 68 63 59 58 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 93 78 58 46 45 41 40 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 91 87 58 46 50 51 53 55 46 33 29 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 14 18 10 12 7 1 10 12 8 23 25 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 1 4 2 4 -6 2 -3 0 0 5 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 219 234 212 203 235 195 184 299 331 238 239 217 244 250 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 28.8 28.2 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.9 30.2 31.0 31.6 31.5 31.0 31.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 150 140 151 152 153 154 166 170 170 170 170 170 170 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.6 -50.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 11 7 10 8 12 11 14 9 10 6 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 66 64 65 65 63 63 62 60 56 58 60 62 60 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 18 17 17 16 17 17 14 10 10 10 7 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 13 -1 -2 -7 -5 9 6 26 40 27 1 -11 -34 -13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 16 17 18 8 11 32 10 18 7 30 36 31 19 35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 15 -1 0 17 -1 13 -2 5 -1 5 -2 1 1 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 265 128 -14 -109 -28 211 368 215 88 -49 -115 -182 -258 -322 -383 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.8 22.8 23.8 24.7 25.7 26.8 28.1 29.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.8 86.2 87.6 88.8 90.0 92.2 94.0 95.6 96.7 97.7 98.6 99.1 99.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 116 62 26 6 30 28 27 36 34 35 6 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. -21. -25. -28. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -8. -5. -0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -13. -20. -22. -23. -27. -29. -28. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -21. -22. -24. -28. -27. -27. -32. -36. -37. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.4 84.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/05/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.43 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 12.2% 8.7% 7.4% 6.4% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 4.4% 2.5% 3.9% 3.9% 4.7% 2.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 4.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 6.9% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 4.6% 1.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 3.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 2.3% .5% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/05/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/05/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 0( 17) 0( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 62 0( 62) 0( 62) 0( 62) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 93 78 58 46 45 41 40 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 79 59 47 46 42 41 39 32 29 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 71 59 58 54 53 51 44 41 40 40 40 40 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 73 72 68 67 65 58 55 54 54 54 54 27 27 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 75 71 70 68 61 58 57 57 57 57 30 30 IN 6HR 95 93 84 78 75 71 67 66 64 57 54 53 53 53 53 26 26 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT