* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 89 85 83 77 74 71 72 71 76 75 71 63 60 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 90 89 69 51 46 43 39 41 40 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 90 85 68 51 47 49 52 54 57 42 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 17 13 16 11 9 4 6 5 15 23 28 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 -1 2 0 2 -1 -3 0 -2 6 -3 2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 231 240 246 221 241 206 228 202 284 307 235 221 234 232 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.5 28.4 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.5 31.4 31.6 31.5 31.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 156 145 143 152 153 153 161 169 170 171 170 170 170 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 11 9 9 8 11 10 12 10 9 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 63 65 63 66 63 63 60 62 55 56 58 62 55 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 16 17 15 16 15 15 13 13 12 11 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 5 -17 -12 -13 1 6 12 0 31 31 16 -10 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 20 18 9 14 -15 33 18 10 16 27 54 26 3 39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 18 14 -2 0 6 8 0 2 4 1 -3 3 -5 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 246 233 84 -44 -87 127 358 277 133 24 -62 -131 -301 -382 -388 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.6 22.7 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.1 27.3 29.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.5 85.1 86.6 87.9 89.1 91.4 93.3 95.0 96.3 97.1 97.9 98.8 100.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 12 12 11 10 8 6 5 6 9 7 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 115 104 41 21 10 22 28 32 36 32 37 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -13. -16. -17. -20. -24. -27. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -9. -12. -10. -7. -3. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -14. -14. -17. -20. -25. -26. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -10. -12. -18. -21. -24. -23. -24. -19. -20. -24. -32. -35. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.3 83.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 461.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.45 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 10.2% 7.1% 6.4% 5.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 1.9% 2.7% 3.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.7% .5% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/04/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 11( 26) 0( 26) 0( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 33 15( 43) 0( 43) 0( 43) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 90 89 69 51 46 43 39 41 40 32 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 93 73 55 50 47 43 45 44 36 32 31 31 31 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 71 53 48 45 41 43 42 34 30 29 29 29 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 67 62 59 55 57 56 48 44 43 43 43 16 16 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 71 68 64 66 65 57 53 52 52 52 25 25 IN 6HR 95 90 81 75 72 68 65 61 63 62 54 50 49 49 49 22 22 IN 12HR 95 90 89 80 74 70 67 63 65 64 56 52 51 51 51 24 24