* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 91 88 84 80 75 74 74 75 77 80 78 69 66 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 94 91 88 71 43 43 42 42 43 34 29 27 27 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 93 88 84 69 41 47 50 53 57 43 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 16 16 18 16 13 10 6 6 2 5 7 11 24 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 1 -1 6 0 6 -5 2 1 2 0 1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 257 228 232 242 211 223 207 208 232 325 249 223 198 206 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 28.7 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.4 30.0 30.2 30.8 31.0 31.1 31.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 158 148 157 154 153 158 168 170 169 169 169 168 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.7 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 9 7 10 8 12 10 14 9 11 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 61 65 67 64 67 64 64 64 60 54 56 61 64 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 16 16 15 17 16 15 13 13 13 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 20 22 12 -13 -10 -3 8 8 16 36 28 38 33 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 18 17 19 10 23 12 32 7 21 2 45 36 27 22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 7 18 13 1 15 0 10 -1 3 -5 4 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 318 279 236 85 -37 -13 240 335 175 49 -81 -135 -211 -275 -327 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.9 23.7 24.7 25.8 26.7 27.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.8 83.5 85.2 86.6 88.0 90.3 92.5 94.4 96.0 97.1 98.0 98.8 99.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 104 96 46 24 33 29 27 41 33 33 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -29. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -7. -4. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -6. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -23. -24. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -25. -26. -26. -25. -23. -20. -22. -31. -34. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.8 81.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 502.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.41 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 8.3% 5.9% 5.5% 5.1% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.4% 2.1% 2.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% .3% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/04/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/04/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 12( 31) 0( 31) 0( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 20( 35) 0( 35) 0( 35) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 94 91 88 71 43 43 42 42 43 34 29 27 27 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 96 93 76 48 48 47 47 48 39 34 32 32 32 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 76 48 48 47 47 48 39 34 32 32 32 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 73 45 45 44 44 45 36 31 29 29 29 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 53 53 52 52 53 44 39 37 37 37 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 94 85 79 76 66 66 65 65 66 57 52 50 50 50 23 23 IN 12HR 100 94 91 82 76 72 72 71 71 72 63 58 56 56 56 29 29