* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/04/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 100 99 95 89 82 79 77 79 80 85 82 80 70 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 104 100 99 95 56 48 45 43 45 40 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 104 99 94 90 54 49 52 57 61 57 38 30 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 17 13 16 11 10 8 10 2 2 4 12 15 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 2 -2 0 2 2 -2 -3 3 0 3 -1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 272 258 228 234 230 239 203 231 246 276 287 238 224 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.7 30.0 30.5 31.4 31.6 31.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 154 155 157 158 149 154 153 153 163 168 170 169 168 166 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 12 10 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 62 66 66 66 64 64 64 62 54 56 59 65 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 19 18 15 14 15 14 15 13 14 13 13 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 7 21 17 0 -20 -10 0 1 10 16 37 24 22 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 16 30 16 9 13 0 35 31 28 12 22 66 44 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 12 12 0 4 10 4 1 -2 -3 0 7 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 184 334 279 255 96 -107 123 351 268 118 -15 -102 -142 -197 -219 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.4 21.3 22.4 23.5 24.3 25.2 26.2 27.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.1 81.8 83.5 85.0 86.5 89.2 91.5 93.4 95.1 96.5 97.6 98.4 98.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 49 104 105 50 8 24 27 33 38 32 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -6. -12. -19. -24. -27. -28. -32. -36. -40. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -14. -10. -6. -1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -13. -11. -13. -14. -22. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -11. -15. -21. -28. -31. -33. -31. -30. -25. -28. -30. -40. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.3 80.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/04/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.47 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 570.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 10.0% 7.3% 6.4% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.7% 1.4% 1.8% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 2.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% .4% .3% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/04/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/04/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 22( 45) 17( 54) 0( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 51 78( 89) 62( 96) 0( 96) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 104 100 99 95 56 48 45 43 45 40 32 28 27 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 105 104 100 61 53 50 48 50 45 37 33 32 32 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 101 62 54 51 49 51 46 38 34 33 33 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 96 57 49 46 44 46 41 33 29 28 28 DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 52 44 41 39 41 36 28 24 23 23 DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 104 95 89 86 64 56 53 51 53 48 40 36 35 35 DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 104 100 91 85 81 73 70 68 70 65 57 53 52 52 25 25