* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 100 98 95 87 81 75 74 76 80 81 82 84 73 68 66 V (KT) LAND 110 104 100 98 95 73 49 43 42 44 48 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 103 97 93 89 69 42 49 53 58 63 48 34 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 22 15 14 14 12 10 12 9 7 8 9 11 22 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 0 0 -4 5 -2 2 -5 1 0 3 -1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 261 268 272 260 238 249 200 226 202 205 211 248 228 239 216 238 236 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.8 29.8 29.0 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.2 30.7 31.3 31.6 31.5 31.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 158 154 155 157 150 166 152 153 159 168 170 169 170 169 169 169 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 8 7 10 8 11 8 12 9 13 8 9 6 10 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 66 69 67 68 66 68 66 63 57 55 55 58 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 18 18 18 16 15 14 15 16 16 16 16 17 11 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 31 18 29 27 -8 1 -10 10 22 33 31 41 23 10 -15 1 200 MB DIV 75 28 9 24 22 24 18 13 38 15 39 17 51 22 55 0 53 700-850 TADV 8 8 6 3 5 -3 6 -3 10 0 7 -2 0 -2 5 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 48 184 346 300 258 -28 14 237 289 157 49 -67 -126 -173 -234 -302 -360 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.6 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.7 25.7 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.3 80.1 81.9 83.5 85.0 88.0 90.6 92.6 94.7 96.2 97.1 97.9 98.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 14 14 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 104 47 46 94 97 26 43 30 26 42 33 36 6 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -11. -17. -22. -25. -26. -29. -33. -37. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -12. -14. -16. -15. -11. -8. -4. -1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. -11. -20. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -15. -23. -29. -35. -36. -34. -30. -29. -28. -26. -37. -42. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.8 78.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.43 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.50 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 508.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.40 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 10.8% 7.6% 6.6% 6.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.2% 1.2% 1.7% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.7% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/04/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/04/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 22( 45) 17( 54) 0( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 69 50( 85) 55( 93) 0( 93) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 104 100 98 95 73 49 43 42 44 48 37 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 110 109 105 103 100 78 54 48 47 49 53 42 35 33 32 32 32 12HR AGO 110 107 106 104 101 79 55 49 48 50 54 43 36 34 33 33 33 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 97 75 51 45 44 46 50 39 32 30 29 29 29 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 69 45 39 38 40 44 33 26 24 23 23 23 IN 6HR 110 104 95 89 86 66 42 36 35 37 41 30 23 21 20 20 20 IN 12HR 110 104 100 91 85 81 57 51 50 52 56 45 38 36 35 35 35