* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/03/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 116 111 106 102 95 88 81 79 77 78 73 74 69 67 65 62 V (KT) LAND 120 116 111 106 102 95 54 46 44 42 43 38 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 110 104 98 90 53 48 51 55 57 61 40 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 23 22 14 16 12 9 7 6 4 6 8 18 25 36 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 1 2 -1 0 3 6 -3 -1 3 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 286 262 262 273 265 242 204 237 203 246 343 309 279 241 227 235 234 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.4 31.2 31.5 31.6 31.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 156 154 155 156 159 156 151 154 161 168 170 169 169 168 169 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 10 8 10 9 10 9 11 11 12 10 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 58 65 66 67 64 65 62 63 54 58 59 67 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 19 19 20 18 16 17 16 15 10 9 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 31 14 30 8 -8 -7 -1 3 14 4 27 14 3 16 6 200 MB DIV 67 77 24 18 30 -13 23 1 28 15 20 -4 8 43 17 36 50 700-850 TADV 14 9 3 0 2 8 6 -2 8 0 0 0 -5 3 4 13 8 LAND (KM) 69 71 216 354 312 81 -121 131 363 261 133 16 -93 -123 -162 -206 -279 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.2 20.0 20.9 22.0 23.0 23.8 24.8 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.8 78.6 80.4 82.1 83.8 86.7 89.3 91.7 93.7 95.2 96.4 97.4 98.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 11 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 92 95 42 47 81 45 5 26 26 33 42 32 16 6 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -15. -23. -30. -34. -36. -39. -43. -47. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -18. -21. -19. -15. -10. -5. -0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -7. -9. -12. -21. -22. -27. -28. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -18. -25. -32. -39. -41. -43. -42. -47. -46. -51. -53. -55. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.2 76.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/03/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.40 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 673.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 10.0% 7.4% 6.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 2.8% 1.4% 2.0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 4.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 2.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% .2% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/03/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/03/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 29( 52) 24( 64) 17( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 28 30( 50) 39( 69) 40( 82) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 116 111 106 102 95 54 46 44 42 43 38 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 120 119 114 109 105 98 57 49 47 45 46 41 33 31 30 30 30 12HR AGO 120 117 116 111 107 100 59 51 49 47 48 43 35 33 32 32 32 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 106 99 58 50 48 46 47 42 34 32 31 31 31 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 94 53 45 43 41 42 37 29 27 26 26 26 IN 6HR 120 116 107 101 98 94 53 45 43 41 42 37 29 27 26 26 26 IN 12HR 120 116 111 102 96 92 51 43 41 39 40 35 27 25 24 24 24