* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 132 128 121 114 100 91 82 76 73 66 63 67 67 72 70 69 V (KT) LAND 130 132 128 121 114 100 91 82 76 73 43 42 46 46 51 49 35 V (KT) LGEM 130 131 127 119 112 100 92 85 81 78 46 45 47 50 54 59 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 20 17 20 13 23 10 12 11 15 10 13 7 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 3 3 4 9 2 0 0 -4 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 317 295 287 291 294 265 266 266 265 243 233 243 222 235 229 261 215 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 30.1 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 150 155 155 160 158 163 159 157 155 172 147 149 153 159 163 148 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 9 9 10 8 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 62 60 64 67 66 63 65 66 69 71 69 70 71 71 70 68 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 21 20 16 16 15 15 15 12 11 12 9 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 38 27 32 44 42 48 59 40 38 23 -10 -9 -10 -1 12 9 34 200 MB DIV 18 32 29 49 66 30 62 25 29 9 16 27 51 49 20 71 9 700-850 TADV -2 2 7 10 13 27 22 3 0 -3 3 1 8 5 4 10 -2 LAND (KM) 120 305 374 352 326 216 98 275 248 49 -86 151 277 229 179 67 -121 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.2 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.5 20.3 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.3 64.1 66.0 67.8 69.7 73.7 77.4 80.9 84.2 87.2 89.8 92.0 93.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 19 19 20 19 18 16 15 14 12 10 8 6 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 29 42 51 112 60 99 40 51 33 8 21 26 24 33 39 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -18. -26. -33. -37. -39. -43. -47. -51. -52. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -11. -15. -20. -21. -20. -16. -12. -7. -5. -1. 3. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -3. -0. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -20. -23. -23. -25. -24. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -2. -9. -16. -30. -39. -48. -54. -57. -64. -67. -63. -63. -58. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 12.8 62.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 656.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.1% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.3% 8.6% 5.0% 3.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 14.3% 16.6% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.9% 13.7% 3.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 12.9% 7.3% 2.2% .6% .3% .3% .2% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/01/24 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/01/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 43( 68) 30( 77) 22( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 91 93( 99) 97(100) 59(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 132 128 121 114 100 91 82 76 73 43 42 46 46 51 49 35 18HR AGO 130 129 125 118 111 97 88 79 73 70 40 39 43 43 48 46 32 12HR AGO 130 127 126 119 112 98 89 80 74 71 41 40 44 44 49 47 33 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 113 99 90 81 75 72 42 41 45 45 50 48 34 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 97 88 79 73 70 40 39 43 43 48 46 32 IN 6HR 130 132 123 117 114 105 96 87 81 78 48 47 51 51 56 54 40 IN 12HR 130 132 128 119 113 109 100 91 85 82 52 51 55 55 60 58 44