* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 33 32 27 23 26 41 54 65 82 94 95 115 125 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 33 32 27 23 26 41 54 65 34 30 29 30 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 29 25 22 20 20 24 29 29 30 30 30 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 21 23 29 40 46 42 55 102 142 123 109 100 34 24 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 -2 -5 5 10 -8 -47 -26 -17 -18 7 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 282 280 261 250 240 243 246 249 267 279 298 317 306 291 238 218 213 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.1 26.1 25.9 24.0 22.3 9.9 13.5 14.9 16.7 7.1 7.0 6.3 5.1 5.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 133 124 115 116 105 97 73 76 77 80 70 69 68 65 63 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -51.8 -51.0 -50.6 -49.2 -52.0 -54.8 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 57 58 64 71 70 77 70 67 69 64 72 77 78 86 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -49 -45 -31 -35 -2 43 97 70 47 62 75 91 116 121 224 265 200 MB DIV -5 29 41 27 24 48 88 113 105 53 23 2 -1 -94 -29 -74 -50 700-850 TADV 8 6 6 6 8 7 17 57 253 227 128 185 300 115 103 71 45 LAND (KM) 465 399 395 435 507 598 752 627 384 1420 608 59 -405 -74 -137 -94 198 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.1 26.8 27.5 28.3 30.7 34.1 39.5 45.7 50.3 49.7 47.2 48.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.2 74.1 74.5 74.5 74.3 72.3 67.7 59.9 48.2 33.5 18.1 3.7 -7.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 8 10 20 33 48 55 51 50 45 33 31 26 17 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 33 47 30 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 14. 23. 32. 39. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -7. -1. 8. 14. 16. 14. 22. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 1. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 16. 19. 20. 16. 15. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -12. -9. 6. 19. 30. 47. 60. 60. 80. 90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.5 73.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.43 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 9.9% 6.9% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.5% 2.4% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/30/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 34 33 32 27 23 26 41 54 65 34 30 29 30 43 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 33 32 27 23 26 41 54 65 34 30 29 30 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 29 24 20 23 38 51 62 31 27 26 27 40 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT