* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 46 40 35 32 32 33 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 46 40 35 32 32 33 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 49 47 41 37 35 35 35 33 28 24 22 20 18 17 Storm Type EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 27 20 22 28 17 14 17 27 10 17 20 19 25 25 34 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 0 -5 0 -6 -5 -4 7 5 -3 -1 4 8 15 16 SHEAR DIR 286 311 333 8 43 36 349 286 278 283 330 341 336 339 303 307 301 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 26.4 26.8 26.7 26.0 24.9 25.3 23.5 24.0 23.0 23.0 22.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 117 122 124 116 120 119 114 105 108 95 97 91 92 95 94 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -51.9 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 40 38 36 35 35 35 40 47 43 41 36 31 36 42 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 29 29 27 23 20 18 18 20 17 13 9 7 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -14 -19 -29 -36 -33 -49 -76 -88 -79 -64 -32 -39 -63 -73 -85 -53 200 MB DIV -40 -44 -49 -72 -82 -73 -13 0 1 7 -55 -65 -36 -113 -132 -90 -10 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -4 -6 -2 0 0 5 14 10 23 21 -11 -5 -4 19 19 LAND (KM) 1732 1750 1770 1758 1750 1693 1576 1453 1369 1407 1582 1790 1807 1636 1470 1118 589 LAT (DEG N) 36.1 35.8 35.5 35.2 34.8 34.6 35.1 36.2 37.8 39.1 39.8 39.8 39.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.8 37.9 38.0 38.7 39.4 40.8 42.2 42.6 41.5 39.2 35.9 33.0 30.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 7 6 6 5 7 10 12 12 10 9 8 12 20 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 3 4 2 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -27. -30. -33. -33. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -20. -19. -25. -32. -38. -42. -45. -49. -48. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -20. -23. -23. -22. -27. -32. -38. -42. -42. -42. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 36.1 37.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -57.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 482.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 51 49 46 40 35 32 32 33 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 52 50 47 41 36 33 33 34 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 46 40 35 32 32 33 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 36 31 28 28 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT