* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/09/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 49 51 56 62 69 72 79 85 85 89 90 89 84 74 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 49 51 56 62 69 72 79 85 85 89 90 89 84 74 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 47 50 54 59 65 71 74 75 77 81 80 75 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 29 17 18 18 22 19 21 24 21 11 6 4 7 6 3 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 4 9 9 -1 -1 0 -1 4 4 3 0 4 6 4 0 SHEAR DIR 299 307 304 271 253 240 229 206 184 181 176 234 266 238 261 115 60 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 140 139 137 138 140 137 140 143 137 140 145 141 135 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 59 61 61 59 56 54 51 50 48 53 53 53 52 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 16 17 20 22 26 28 34 37 36 38 39 40 38 35 850 MB ENV VOR 53 55 59 53 48 61 65 79 85 98 92 78 82 79 74 42 18 200 MB DIV 28 46 93 70 29 42 61 41 39 23 1 15 8 31 11 17 -44 700-850 TADV 7 10 5 3 1 5 3 3 4 8 11 10 4 8 10 5 -2 LAND (KM) 2024 2136 2250 2298 2261 2210 2207 2228 2254 2145 1972 1812 1669 1569 1500 1423 1338 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.0 23.1 24.6 26.2 27.6 29.1 30.7 32.2 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.4 37.5 38.7 39.4 40.2 41.3 41.8 42.2 42.6 42.9 43.1 43.3 43.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 33 37 31 26 18 14 32 26 18 11 15 13 11 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 14. 12. 9. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -8. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 25. 30. 28. 29. 29. 29. 26. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 11. 16. 22. 29. 32. 39. 45. 45. 49. 50. 49. 44. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.7 36.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.53 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.8% 8.7% 7.4% 4.7% 8.6% 9.0% 10.1% Logistic: 1.8% 2.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 2.4% 1.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.3% 3.3% 2.8% 1.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 49 51 56 62 69 72 79 85 85 89 90 89 84 74 18HR AGO 40 39 41 45 47 52 58 65 68 75 81 81 85 86 85 80 70 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 47 53 60 63 70 76 76 80 81 80 75 65 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 37 43 50 53 60 66 66 70 71 70 65 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT