* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 70 69 65 57 45 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 70 69 65 57 45 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 72 70 68 67 58 40 30 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 23 37 41 42 41 31 35 44 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 16 12 2 9 10 0 1 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 205 197 189 194 195 187 195 204 224 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 27.2 26.8 27.3 22.9 17.6 17.3 15.1 10.6 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 128 124 130 93 74 75 73 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.2 -48.0 -48.0 -48.1 -47.5 -47.6 -47.1 -47.1 -47.3 -46.7 -47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 54 50 45 40 46 44 57 64 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 46 46 48 49 51 45 31 25 22 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 106 109 133 116 129 107 110 126 70 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 113 124 133 122 87 77 81 72 58 33 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 15 19 -1 8 5 5 4 5 2 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 847 788 753 749 610 327 81 -5 20 20 460 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.5 33.8 35.3 36.7 40.2 43.1 45.5 49.0 51.8 53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.1 67.8 67.4 67.0 66.6 66.6 65.4 61.5 55.8 48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 16 13 17 22 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 7 4 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -6. -14. -22. -30. -35. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -10. -6. 0. 10. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. -3. -22. -32. -39. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -10. -18. -30. -49. -60. -60. -55. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 31.1 68.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 424.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/14/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 2( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 72 70 69 65 57 45 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 72 71 67 59 47 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 66 58 46 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 53 41 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT