* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/07/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 80 84 89 94 94 97 99 105 111 115 114 112 111 108 106 V (KT) LAND 70 74 80 84 89 94 94 97 99 105 111 115 114 112 111 108 106 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 77 82 86 96 104 108 108 109 114 116 114 115 115 110 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 2 7 8 15 13 12 10 11 14 17 19 18 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 3 5 3 2 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 -1 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 43 359 25 269 245 250 245 277 256 301 291 309 298 312 300 286 279 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 163 165 167 170 167 167 167 164 162 162 163 158 151 147 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.1 -49.8 -49.2 -49.1 -48.2 -48.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 61 61 60 62 62 63 61 57 57 56 59 59 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 25 25 26 29 31 35 38 41 42 44 48 49 52 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 40 41 34 16 19 10 16 24 41 56 74 100 111 134 134 200 MB DIV 8 0 -6 -5 12 70 -2 11 -13 12 17 55 60 55 37 64 72 700-850 TADV -9 -13 -9 -8 -8 -11 -8 0 -6 -1 -1 1 0 3 8 19 21 LAND (KM) 1253 1134 1022 935 862 701 511 422 375 373 406 481 511 514 571 623 659 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.4 23.0 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.1 49.4 50.6 51.8 52.9 55.2 57.4 59.2 61.0 62.6 64.0 65.3 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 46 59 62 58 53 66 64 70 88 78 83 64 66 70 46 28 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 14. 13. 8. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. 0. 4. 6. 11. 15. 19. 19. 20. 26. 26. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 19. 24. 24. 27. 29. 35. 41. 45. 45. 42. 41. 38. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.8 48.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/07/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.53 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 32.3% 19.8% 19.6% 12.8% 19.1% 14.7% 16.1% Logistic: 8.6% 11.9% 9.4% 6.9% 3.2% 7.5% 5.6% 3.0% Bayesian: 5.9% 26.5% 26.3% 4.0% 5.7% 16.1% 3.6% 0.3% Consensus: 9.5% 23.6% 18.5% 10.2% 7.3% 14.2% 8.0% 6.5% DTOPS: 15.0% 80.0% 52.0% 30.0% 23.0% 94.0% 93.0% 62.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/07/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/07/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 11( 21) 16( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 80 84 89 94 94 97 99 105 111 115 114 112 111 108 106 18HR AGO 70 69 75 79 84 89 89 92 94 100 106 110 109 107 106 103 101 12HR AGO 70 67 66 70 75 80 80 83 85 91 97 101 100 98 97 94 92 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 65 70 70 73 75 81 87 91 90 88 87 84 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT