* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/08/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 53 61 64 60 56 54 52 54 50 45 37 22 20 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 53 61 64 60 56 54 52 54 50 45 34 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 54 54 50 47 50 53 53 55 55 56 52 35 30 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 48 50 53 46 22 23 19 24 24 10 4 6 37 16 50 86 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 6 9 2 -4 1 0 -1 -1 4 0 1 21 -2 -25 SHEAR DIR 232 233 224 220 217 208 222 233 237 220 217 330 234 253 239 284 279 SST (C) 24.4 24.2 24.2 22.9 22.9 18.4 17.7 17.2 18.7 15.7 12.1 12.7 7.1 3.5 2.6 2.0 3.8 POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 103 97 99 82 75 71 78 73 68 69 63 68 71 66 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 92 95 92 95 78 70 66 72 69 66 67 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -56.7 -56.1 -55.6 -55.2 -56.5 -55.4 -55.3 -54.4 -54.6 -57.5 -60.4 -63.2 -64.3 -64.6 -64.3 -64.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 1.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 2.2 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 61 62 65 72 69 69 75 77 81 69 53 48 63 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 38 39 38 48 48 43 39 37 35 34 30 26 20 11 16 850 MB ENV VOR 286 287 289 297 324 336 323 344 377 377 301 242 146 216 185 46 -61 200 MB DIV 66 96 105 70 104 159 40 23 59 74 24 17 20 1 11 -97 25 700-850 TADV -7 2 1 -22 -20 -3 15 32 27 -4 2 -6 12 24 12 -53 22 LAND (KM) 1995 1967 1959 1930 1874 1608 1150 1035 1294 1503 1370 945 638 346 -32 -213 -454 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.5 30.0 31.1 33.0 39.4 43.6 42.4 42.0 44.8 48.3 49.6 48.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.3 47.8 45.9 43.3 40.3 36.0 39.1 41.5 38.2 33.7 34.4 40.1 44.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 21 28 34 33 16 8 18 21 18 19 11 26 43 22 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -27. -30. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -20. -19. -18. -21. -23. -27. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 34. 32. 30. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 10. 12. 7. 1. -3. -6. -7. -14. -19. -26. -36. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 22. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. 6. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -1. -5. -10. -18. -33. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.0 49.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/08/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/08/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/08/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 54 53 61 64 60 56 54 52 54 50 45 34 29 30 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 52 60 63 59 55 53 51 53 49 44 33 28 29 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 58 61 57 53 51 49 51 47 42 31 26 27 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 52 55 51 47 45 43 45 41 36 25 20 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT