* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/08/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 53 52 55 61 57 52 51 48 46 48 42 35 26 17 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 53 52 55 61 57 52 51 48 46 48 42 35 26 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 54 54 51 47 49 54 54 54 57 61 62 59 42 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 42 52 51 51 32 24 14 30 31 19 14 9 2 15 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 7 4 1 4 4 -1 -3 0 -2 0 3 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 240 238 233 222 223 208 199 250 262 227 207 235 216 298 300 302 308 SST (C) 25.0 24.9 24.5 24.5 23.3 19.9 18.8 19.0 18.3 14.7 12.7 13.3 16.0 16.5 15.6 15.7 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 104 106 101 86 78 74 78 72 68 68 72 77 77 76 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 94 95 101 98 83 72 67 72 68 65 65 68 73 75 73 70 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -56.9 -56.2 -55.8 -55.5 -56.3 -55.8 -55.1 -54.9 -55.9 -56.3 -57.9 -56.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 0.4 2.1 2.8 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.1 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 66 62 62 58 63 73 69 72 74 75 75 72 67 60 60 67 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 38 40 40 45 49 43 38 38 36 34 34 29 25 21 15 850 MB ENV VOR 282 292 295 289 304 346 342 344 367 361 331 289 278 228 177 201 171 200 MB DIV 20 59 94 92 68 131 115 29 38 86 79 31 -2 -15 -15 -11 -6 700-850 TADV -1 7 4 -14 -26 -26 0 45 54 6 -30 6 0 0 -9 -8 12 LAND (KM) 1871 1968 2031 2028 1982 1738 1300 1148 1418 1623 1514 1214 1172 1635 1199 437 -119 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.3 30.7 36.3 41.9 41.8 41.6 44.6 48.0 48.2 45.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.1 50.0 48.4 46.1 43.0 37.5 38.2 40.4 36.8 32.2 32.5 36.5 37.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 17 25 33 35 18 6 20 21 14 13 16 29 36 31 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 24. 19. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 3. -3. -4. -9. -12. -13. -19. -24. -28. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. 24. 24. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 6. 2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -7. -13. -20. -29. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.5 51.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/08/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 9.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/08/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/08/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 53 52 55 61 57 52 51 48 46 48 42 35 26 23 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 52 55 61 57 52 51 48 46 48 42 35 26 23 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 53 59 55 50 49 46 44 46 40 33 24 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 47 53 49 44 43 40 38 40 34 27 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT