* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/08/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 52 51 49 55 54 49 48 48 46 45 41 39 33 26 V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 52 51 49 55 54 49 48 48 46 45 41 39 33 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 54 55 52 46 45 51 56 55 55 57 60 60 55 Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 35 46 59 65 43 25 24 14 21 19 17 10 9 26 45 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 2 0 0 5 0 -3 1 -3 5 0 0 0 -6 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 253 245 239 236 229 223 215 215 212 235 198 202 219 217 273 298 306 SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.0 24.6 22.8 18.6 17.6 19.2 17.5 15.0 12.5 12.9 17.7 18.0 20.4 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 102 104 107 109 109 100 82 74 77 77 71 67 68 76 81 89 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 90 96 103 107 98 78 68 70 73 68 65 66 71 77 87 95 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -57.3 -56.6 -55.7 -55.0 -55.6 -57.1 -56.0 -55.4 -54.9 -56.0 -58.3 -60.0 -61.2 -61.1 -59.9 -59.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 60 64 61 56 54 68 75 70 66 72 71 69 64 43 32 25 16 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 37 38 39 41 47 46 41 38 38 35 33 28 26 24 19 850 MB ENV VOR 274 276 294 301 301 314 336 365 355 400 339 315 256 113 70 44 12 200 MB DIV 38 -5 3 56 91 135 134 70 25 42 67 22 2 -55 -76 -109 -80 700-850 TADV -13 -5 6 14 19 -43 -17 11 34 10 -21 -39 -18 4 8 -16 1 LAND (KM) 1735 1750 1773 1896 2170 2005 1577 1138 1181 1531 1646 1473 1139 1164 1680 1518 602 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.5 27.7 32.2 40.0 43.2 41.6 42.3 46.0 48.4 47.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.1 52.8 52.0 50.1 47.1 39.2 35.9 39.5 40.1 34.8 30.9 33.0 37.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 13 22 32 45 32 13 12 24 18 14 16 20 32 42 40 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -27. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -19. -22. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. -25. -26. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 28. 25. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 8. 6. -1. -5. -6. -10. -14. -20. -23. -25. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 18. 19. 21. 20. 20. 22. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. 0. -1. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -14. -16. -22. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.8 53.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/08/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/08/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/08/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 52 52 51 49 55 54 49 48 48 46 45 41 39 33 26 18HR AGO 55 54 52 52 51 49 55 54 49 48 48 46 45 41 39 33 26 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 48 54 53 48 47 47 45 44 40 38 32 25 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 42 48 47 42 41 41 39 38 34 32 26 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT