* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/07/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 54 53 55 59 58 56 57 54 54 50 49 40 29 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 54 53 55 59 58 56 57 54 54 50 49 40 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 57 58 59 56 53 51 54 60 60 59 57 54 51 47 Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 31 34 44 51 52 18 21 8 15 18 22 11 9 24 39 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -2 0 1 1 0 0 1 -4 1 3 3 0 2 4 6 SHEAR DIR 251 252 246 239 235 225 209 184 206 262 213 208 182 166 233 236 237 SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 24.9 23.8 19.9 19.2 18.9 18.7 15.6 11.9 10.7 11.6 10.5 13.2 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 105 108 109 105 86 78 76 81 74 69 67 66 61 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 86 91 97 103 105 83 72 69 76 70 67 66 63 59 63 61 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -58.1 -57.3 -56.6 -56.0 -55.7 -56.8 -56.5 -55.9 -54.8 -56.0 -57.5 -60.2 -62.4 -63.8 -62.9 -60.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.5 2.2 0.8 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 62 64 61 56 65 77 72 69 72 75 71 63 50 43 39 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 38 37 38 39 41 43 45 42 38 38 36 34 30 28 23 17 850 MB ENV VOR 264 269 277 300 302 310 354 379 372 418 336 330 252 118 105 4 37 200 MB DIV 62 29 5 17 83 114 116 86 32 32 67 54 17 40 20 37 21 700-850 TADV -4 -11 -4 4 9 -3 -13 -14 4 39 -18 -14 0 21 28 23 -17 LAND (KM) 1720 1734 1743 1783 1936 2051 1658 1168 1139 1482 1677 1471 1018 769 783 843 962 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.6 30.1 36.9 41.7 40.7 41.1 45.2 49.1 49.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.3 53.2 52.8 51.8 49.7 42.8 38.0 40.2 41.6 36.3 31.2 32.9 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 8 15 23 39 35 15 11 27 24 20 18 11 3 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 28. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 4. -1. -7. -9. -12. -15. -20. -22. -27. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 23. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 4. 3. 1. 2. -1. -1. -5. -6. -15. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.8 53.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/07/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/07/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/07/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 54 54 53 55 59 58 56 57 54 54 50 49 40 29 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 53 52 54 58 57 55 56 53 53 49 48 39 28 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 50 52 56 55 53 54 51 51 47 46 37 26 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 44 46 50 49 47 48 45 45 41 40 31 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT