* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/07/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 57 59 59 67 67 62 61 60 62 59 57 49 39 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 57 59 59 67 67 62 61 60 62 59 57 49 39 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 59 60 64 65 59 51 51 56 59 60 60 60 58 55 Storm Type SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 24 29 31 40 51 32 25 16 12 22 22 26 22 20 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -7 -3 0 6 3 -2 -2 -2 1 2 -3 -2 -2 1 11 SHEAR DIR 233 252 259 250 239 224 212 192 203 247 196 222 233 226 228 262 262 SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.1 24.6 22.8 18.7 18.7 18.9 16.2 13.7 10.7 12.6 14.5 18.8 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 103 105 108 108 99 80 74 81 76 70 68 70 71 80 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 86 88 93 98 105 97 75 67 76 73 67 66 68 68 75 77 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.7 -57.9 -57.5 -56.8 -55.9 -56.2 -56.7 -55.2 -54.4 -55.8 -57.2 -58.5 -59.9 -60.7 -60.1 -59.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 2.3 2.0 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 59 64 67 63 61 71 73 70 68 73 67 54 54 48 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 37 37 36 41 43 49 47 40 39 38 39 38 35 29 24 850 MB ENV VOR 257 262 269 276 290 300 339 357 377 380 357 294 283 213 104 135 111 200 MB DIV 50 53 26 1 9 116 122 106 60 19 41 38 31 17 2 -10 -21 700-850 TADV 1 1 -6 -4 7 7 -58 -9 9 31 -28 -45 -42 3 9 22 1 LAND (KM) 1661 1683 1698 1716 1801 2102 1864 1375 1099 1422 1763 1485 1464 938 791 1194 1825 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.9 28.5 33.1 39.7 40.9 39.6 42.6 47.2 50.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 53.6 53.4 52.8 51.5 46.6 40.3 39.1 42.0 38.5 31.5 29.5 32.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 9 15 29 37 24 6 25 29 19 21 22 20 25 37 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -14. -17. -18. -17. -18. -19. -21. -24. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 24. 27. 27. 24. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 2. 4. 11. 8. -1. -4. -6. -5. -7. -11. -18. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 23. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. 4. 4. 12. 12. 7. 6. 5. 7. 4. 2. -6. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.4 53.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/07/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/07/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/07/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 58 58 57 59 59 67 67 62 61 60 62 59 57 49 39 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 54 56 56 64 64 59 58 57 59 56 54 46 36 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 52 52 60 60 55 54 53 55 52 50 42 32 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 46 46 54 54 49 48 47 49 46 44 36 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT