* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/07/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 61 62 63 66 74 80 77 71 72 69 69 70 68 61 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 61 62 63 66 74 80 77 71 72 69 69 70 68 61 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 60 59 62 66 65 57 50 53 58 60 62 63 61 60 Storm Type TROP SUBT SUBT EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 26 23 26 32 45 50 27 24 9 17 16 22 25 20 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -6 -3 1 4 2 1 1 -1 0 -1 -2 2 6 12 SHEAR DIR 224 228 249 260 248 231 221 191 184 242 271 215 229 222 184 147 297 SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.4 23.6 20.4 19.3 19.2 18.6 15.3 11.7 9.9 13.0 16.7 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 107 104 105 106 108 112 103 87 78 78 81 74 68 66 68 77 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 88 89 92 95 106 101 83 71 71 77 71 66 65 65 74 76 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.3 -57.5 -57.8 -57.3 -56.5 -56.1 -56.9 -56.0 -55.6 -55.2 -56.4 -57.9 -59.1 -58.2 -57.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.2 1.9 2.8 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.2 1.6 2.2 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 5 3 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 53 56 59 63 65 59 67 78 68 68 70 75 70 62 60 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 38 39 37 36 37 41 47 50 45 39 38 35 37 39 38 34 850 MB ENV VOR 244 254 259 269 277 284 297 353 345 360 389 320 286 245 209 155 145 200 MB DIV 43 54 49 23 9 73 124 104 93 38 30 38 33 33 39 21 -46 700-850 TADV 4 3 -4 -5 -3 -1 -8 -39 -19 28 55 -21 -1 5 -12 28 4 LAND (KM) 1609 1638 1646 1668 1703 1973 2012 1654 1185 1191 1593 1662 1457 1364 1033 1261 1445 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.8 30.3 36.5 41.1 40.0 40.2 44.5 48.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.2 54.2 54.1 53.6 52.8 49.4 43.3 38.6 40.5 41.6 35.5 29.7 30.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 3 6 10 22 35 33 14 13 30 26 17 16 15 30 42 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -16. -19. -20. -20. -20. -21. -24. -26. -25. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. 21. 23. 26. 26. 22. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 8. 16. 20. 14. 5. 3. -2. 0. 1. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 21. 23. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 12. 13. 16. 24. 30. 27. 21. 22. 19. 20. 20. 18. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.2 54.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/07/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.79 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 10.6% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 12.0% 7.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/07/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/07/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 59 61 62 63 66 74 80 77 71 72 69 69 70 68 61 18HR AGO 50 49 53 55 56 57 60 68 74 71 65 66 63 63 64 62 55 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 50 53 61 67 64 58 59 56 56 57 55 48 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 42 45 53 59 56 50 51 48 48 49 47 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT