* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/07/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 57 63 65 65 71 70 80 78 68 64 61 52 52 47 43 V (KT) LAND 45 50 57 63 65 65 71 70 80 78 68 64 61 52 52 47 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 56 57 58 66 66 57 47 42 44 49 55 56 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 32 21 24 36 39 68 65 30 33 34 29 33 48 37 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 1 -2 -9 1 -5 5 -3 8 0 8 3 2 6 5 4 SHEAR DIR 225 229 248 260 257 237 234 226 221 227 226 224 242 236 207 206 199 SST (C) 25.2 25.2 24.5 24.2 25.0 25.5 25.8 24.2 19.4 16.9 15.8 20.1 19.3 17.3 14.9 11.9 7.9 POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 101 99 106 112 119 108 86 77 73 81 81 79 74 70 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 94 88 87 95 104 119 108 83 73 70 74 76 76 71 68 66 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -58.5 -59.0 -59.0 -58.6 -56.6 -55.0 -55.4 -57.1 -57.3 -56.6 -55.8 -55.5 -56.3 -56.5 -58.6 -59.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 0.8 0.0 0.7 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 4 6 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 54 56 57 59 53 45 61 73 56 63 58 61 59 59 69 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 31 36 38 36 34 39 42 50 49 42 40 38 35 38 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 225 228 231 227 240 261 290 281 320 305 308 263 317 406 417 328 207 200 MB DIV 92 64 89 65 -3 -27 77 124 106 100 18 25 37 50 46 48 75 700-850 TADV 29 4 -4 -13 -15 -3 18 5 -21 -2 8 20 59 42 -27 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 1752 1866 1789 1730 1715 1493 1843 2218 1801 1254 767 865 1254 1686 1451 1169 1398 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.7 30.6 30.8 30.1 27.0 25.5 29.3 37.9 44.5 44.6 41.3 39.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.6 52.2 52.6 53.7 54.8 54.6 49.6 40.7 34.7 37.2 43.7 45.3 41.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 10 8 10 13 18 33 50 44 26 21 16 24 33 27 23 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 18 CX,CY: 9/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -11. -23. -29. -33. -37. -40. -42. -49. -53. -54. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 16. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 22. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 6. 4. 10. 15. 25. 24. 14. 10. 6. 2. 5. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 24. 25. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 18. 20. 20. 26. 25. 35. 33. 23. 19. 16. 7. 7. 2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.5 52.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/07/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 9.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 13.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/07/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/07/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 2( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 57 63 65 65 71 70 80 78 68 64 61 52 52 47 43 18HR AGO 45 44 51 57 59 59 65 64 74 72 62 58 55 46 46 41 37 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 49 49 55 54 64 62 52 48 45 36 36 31 27 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 37 43 42 52 50 40 36 33 24 24 19 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT