* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/06/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 44 53 57 62 67 70 74 77 79 72 71 65 63 65 60 V (KT) LAND 35 38 44 53 57 62 67 70 74 77 79 72 71 65 63 65 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 39 41 43 44 48 54 52 47 45 47 53 57 59 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 41 40 20 21 34 53 69 30 19 15 12 12 5 10 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 8 4 -2 -5 0 3 1 11 19 SHEAR DIR 230 230 233 253 265 247 240 223 200 190 224 242 210 217 224 111 84 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.2 25.2 24.8 25.1 25.5 24.6 22.3 19.3 19.6 19.6 16.3 13.1 9.9 8.7 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 107 106 102 105 112 110 97 81 78 84 77 70 67 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 95 93 88 92 104 110 95 75 71 79 74 68 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.5 -57.8 -58.4 -58.9 -58.5 -56.1 -55.0 -55.8 -56.9 -56.2 -55.0 -55.6 -57.5 -58.6 -58.1 -57.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.2 1.9 3.0 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 2 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 51 57 60 59 63 53 58 76 77 72 72 75 82 77 71 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 31 38 38 36 37 41 45 47 48 40 38 34 32 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 218 232 239 249 243 255 287 304 355 394 413 387 410 362 350 392 342 200 MB DIV 73 88 78 104 97 -3 42 152 101 155 67 8 41 76 46 58 57 700-850 TADV 11 31 6 -9 -8 -16 12 6 -46 -8 7 18 -16 -19 7 -101 -42 LAND (KM) 1528 1646 1769 1867 1823 1757 1705 2190 1832 1252 1073 1469 1761 1537 1378 1039 722 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.5 28.4 29.5 30.3 29.7 27.4 27.8 34.0 40.6 40.1 38.6 42.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 53.1 52.3 52.0 52.4 53.7 52.3 46.1 39.3 40.0 43.4 38.9 31.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 7 9 19 37 41 22 12 28 30 21 18 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -5. -16. -24. -28. -31. -30. -30. -31. -31. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 21. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 9. 10. 9. 13. 19. 25. 27. 28. 17. 12. 6. 3. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 16. 18. 21. 21. 23. 27. 28. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 18. 23. 27. 32. 35. 39. 42. 44. 37. 36. 30. 28. 30. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.8 54.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/06/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 50.0% 16.0% 5.0% 3.0% 8.0% 18.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/06/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/06/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 44 53 57 62 67 70 74 77 79 72 71 65 63 65 60 18HR AGO 35 34 40 49 53 58 63 66 70 73 75 68 67 61 59 61 56 12HR AGO 35 32 31 40 44 49 54 57 61 64 66 59 58 52 50 52 47 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 39 42 46 49 51 44 43 37 35 37 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT