* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/06/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 45 50 48 43 34 29 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 45 50 48 43 34 29 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 33 28 23 23 25 29 32 34 35 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 48 40 36 41 38 44 59 52 72 38 50 53 60 53 40 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -11 -5 -6 -4 5 1 2 5 0 6 1 3 6 6 5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 234 237 242 258 266 264 230 214 210 229 230 247 209 190 188 212 225 SST (C) 26.2 26.8 25.8 25.4 24.1 22.7 23.7 25.5 25.2 21.9 16.7 13.5 15.3 19.4 18.5 15.8 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 116 124 115 112 102 91 99 114 116 95 78 71 72 80 81 78 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 114 109 106 94 82 90 109 116 93 75 68 69 73 77 76 71 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -56.9 -57.2 -58.0 -58.7 -60.3 -58.6 -55.0 -54.0 -55.3 -58.1 -57.4 -57.5 -55.4 -54.1 -54.3 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 2 2 2 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 49 54 58 56 57 54 46 51 72 72 75 69 55 60 56 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 180 208 220 225 228 201 234 292 281 359 303 312 302 234 281 258 147 200 MB DIV 33 79 111 141 117 34 -27 16 65 126 168 69 26 16 0 37 37 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -5 23 75 61 -53 -90 -130 -111 302 137 -10 -95 -164 -94 2 LAND (KM) 1384 1508 1715 1958 1870 1538 1671 1688 2313 2040 1617 1111 741 908 1361 1636 971 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.5 26.4 28.0 30.2 33.0 31.4 27.4 26.9 34.0 43.0 46.9 45.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.6 53.3 51.5 49.7 48.9 50.5 53.6 52.5 45.1 35.7 33.2 38.1 43.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 15 20 22 20 13 18 25 45 54 34 23 20 17 30 40 31 HEAT CONTENT 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 7. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -8. -19. -33. -42. -49. -56. -64. -75. -80. -80. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 25. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. 21. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. -0. -2. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 13. 8. -1. -6. -7. -12. -18. -26. -31. -31. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.3 54.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/06/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/06/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/06/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 45 50 48 43 34 29 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 42 47 45 40 31 26 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 41 39 34 25 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT