* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/06/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 49 56 65 71 75 78 77 81 79 73 69 62 61 53 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 49 56 65 71 75 78 77 81 79 73 69 62 61 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 41 45 48 48 54 59 58 49 42 41 46 53 54 51 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 44 47 45 35 30 37 46 74 53 32 22 17 21 24 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -9 -2 -4 3 2 0 -3 -11 2 -5 3 4 3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 246 236 233 235 233 267 259 240 227 212 215 224 195 271 250 216 260 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 25.7 24.9 23.2 23.6 25.9 25.8 24.0 19.3 19.0 20.2 20.7 18.7 15.5 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 117 119 120 114 108 95 98 117 120 107 84 81 83 88 84 77 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 107 111 106 99 85 89 110 120 107 81 75 76 84 81 74 69 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -57.6 -57.3 -57.8 -58.3 -59.7 -59.7 -56.3 -54.6 -55.3 -57.6 -58.4 -57.2 -56.8 -58.5 -59.5 -59.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 3 2 2 4 6 5 1 0 1 2 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 52 53 56 57 59 57 48 50 67 75 60 61 66 69 75 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 27 32 35 36 39 43 47 51 49 44 42 38 37 32 850 MB ENV VOR 164 180 205 212 224 217 220 267 279 348 356 371 339 355 317 331 269 200 MB DIV 25 41 75 99 139 93 -32 -18 20 136 48 60 5 26 24 24 38 700-850 TADV -17 0 22 26 12 -26 -16 3 12 -21 -35 -20 24 55 -3 -38 -26 LAND (KM) 1315 1413 1571 1771 1969 1620 1627 1506 1875 2101 1539 947 983 1470 1973 1078 766 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.5 26.0 27.1 28.9 32.2 31.5 27.5 25.6 30.6 39.1 42.6 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 54.4 52.9 51.3 50.2 51.1 54.6 54.9 49.3 40.4 37.3 42.6 46.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 16 19 19 15 18 22 36 49 35 25 20 32 46 36 24 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -6. -14. -26. -37. -43. -45. -45. -48. -50. -50. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 20. 22. 24. 24. 22. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 9. 13. 17. 22. 28. 34. 40. 37. 28. 23. 16. 14. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 23. 24. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 21. 30. 36. 40. 43. 42. 46. 44. 38. 34. 27. 26. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.4 55.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/06/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 49.0% 16.0% 5.0% 3.0% 24.0% 22.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/06/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/06/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 49 56 65 71 75 78 77 81 79 73 69 62 61 53 18HR AGO 35 34 38 45 52 61 67 71 74 73 77 75 69 65 58 57 49 12HR AGO 35 32 31 38 45 54 60 64 67 66 70 68 62 58 51 50 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 32 41 47 51 54 53 57 55 49 45 38 37 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT