* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/06/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 59 73 79 81 85 84 96 96 92 85 80 75 71 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 59 73 79 81 85 84 96 96 92 85 80 75 71 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 49 58 60 63 68 70 67 59 55 57 58 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 39 41 42 41 12 26 30 46 45 26 22 6 7 14 32 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 -3 7 -5 1 0 0 1 9 -1 0 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 239 236 226 221 219 204 265 243 233 221 212 174 238 183 208 214 222 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.1 25.0 25.8 25.4 23.3 20.8 20.0 22.4 20.4 18.6 17.8 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 111 111 110 104 103 112 113 102 88 81 92 86 76 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 97 96 96 95 89 88 100 109 100 83 74 83 80 70 66 63 200 MB T (C) -59.3 -59.5 -58.6 -58.1 -58.1 -58.2 -59.0 -57.7 -56.2 -56.8 -58.0 -57.5 -54.6 -55.3 -58.3 -61.4 -61.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.2 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 1 1 2 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 56 54 54 58 61 64 59 57 67 78 68 66 73 82 70 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 27 38 37 37 40 41 51 53 48 45 41 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 147 164 186 204 229 255 259 273 304 331 350 365 389 401 366 282 215 200 MB DIV 57 42 59 77 85 100 42 0 93 109 62 28 30 22 16 19 26 700-850 TADV -10 -21 -6 8 30 1 5 4 6 -21 -18 -12 4 -14 -9 -38 -47 LAND (KM) 1365 1454 1521 1580 1653 1786 1761 1631 1870 1952 1417 926 1216 1491 1447 1259 1151 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.4 29.7 30.1 28.4 27.5 30.7 37.5 40.1 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.0 55.4 54.8 54.3 53.8 53.3 54.1 54.1 50.4 43.8 41.2 46.1 46.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 6 7 6 5 11 25 37 30 17 20 27 14 8 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -17. -25. -30. -32. -32. -32. -32. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 22. 24. 25. 24. 23. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 5. 15. 18. 20. 24. 27. 40. 42. 34. 27. 21. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. 21. 24. 25. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 24. 38. 44. 46. 50. 49. 61. 61. 57. 50. 45. 40. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.7 56.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/06/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/06/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/06/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 51 59 73 79 81 85 84 96 96 92 85 80 75 71 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 53 67 73 75 79 78 90 90 86 79 74 69 65 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 45 59 65 67 71 70 82 82 78 71 66 61 57 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 33 47 53 55 59 58 70 70 66 59 54 49 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT