* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/05/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 57 68 81 85 89 88 90 91 88 79 74 69 63 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 57 68 81 85 89 88 90 91 88 79 74 69 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 44 48 59 64 66 71 70 64 57 54 56 56 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 31 36 34 29 18 30 51 52 24 36 18 17 12 18 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -5 0 5 5 0 -1 3 7 3 SHEAR DIR 210 226 230 230 223 231 251 251 236 223 217 202 198 205 151 194 222 SST (C) 26.2 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.0 25.2 24.1 25.1 26.2 24.6 22.0 21.3 21.7 20.6 17.3 15.8 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 116 112 111 112 114 107 98 107 120 110 93 86 90 90 77 70 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 98 97 99 101 95 86 96 113 110 89 77 83 87 73 66 62 200 MB T (C) -58.9 -59.2 -58.9 -58.2 -58.1 -58.5 -59.1 -58.0 -56.1 -56.0 -57.5 -57.1 -54.7 -53.8 -56.5 -58.9 -60.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 5 5 1 1 3 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 54 56 55 56 60 64 61 58 67 80 75 62 73 82 81 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 22 25 32 38 38 40 42 45 47 45 40 37 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 136 143 161 190 211 237 247 266 319 311 369 385 398 369 392 351 296 200 MB DIV 82 61 34 42 79 75 78 -1 70 76 134 48 47 50 43 6 12 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -13 -6 -2 -12 -7 4 17 -2 -42 -39 6 -24 -30 -46 -86 LAND (KM) 1246 1343 1403 1487 1591 1815 1696 1583 1576 2093 1633 1129 1357 1794 1803 1695 1593 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.4 29.4 31.0 29.3 26.8 28.5 34.6 38.8 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.8 56.0 55.4 54.6 53.7 52.6 54.1 55.8 53.4 47.0 42.1 44.4 45.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 9 10 11 9 14 21 36 32 15 23 40 26 11 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -13. -21. -26. -29. -31. -33. -33. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 21. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 20. 22. 25. 28. 32. 35. 31. 22. 16. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. 21. 24. 25. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 33. 46. 50. 54. 53. 55. 56. 53. 44. 39. 34. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.9 56.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/05/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 6.9% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/05/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/05/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 51 57 68 81 85 89 88 90 91 88 79 74 69 63 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 51 62 75 79 83 82 84 85 82 73 68 63 57 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 54 67 71 75 74 76 77 74 65 60 55 49 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 42 55 59 63 62 64 65 62 53 48 43 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT