* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 12/05/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 46 52 63 79 83 87 91 91 98 91 83 74 69 71 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 46 52 63 79 83 87 91 91 98 91 83 74 69 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 42 51 59 62 68 72 68 60 55 54 55 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 16 25 31 31 19 23 40 38 28 48 27 20 21 22 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 0 5 0 -4 -3 0 2 2 2 3 -1 -2 4 6 SHEAR DIR 230 226 232 235 226 208 243 235 240 217 212 217 186 243 203 214 238 SST (C) 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.7 25.5 26.1 24.6 22.4 22.3 21.5 23.1 18.4 15.2 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 113 112 110 106 102 110 118 109 94 90 89 101 83 73 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 103 99 98 96 92 88 97 111 107 88 81 83 100 81 69 66 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -59.2 -59.8 -60.2 -59.7 -59.0 -58.4 -57.6 -56.7 -57.1 -58.0 -56.8 -55.6 -54.4 -56.7 -59.6 -61.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.5 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.8 1.2 2.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 5 2 1 3 5 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 58 61 58 61 59 61 61 69 76 72 61 66 76 83 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 22 24 31 39 37 38 42 43 50 47 43 37 34 39 850 MB ENV VOR 127 126 135 153 181 232 246 274 319 315 357 382 356 336 336 300 207 200 MB DIV 72 110 110 76 58 72 42 -10 46 81 71 75 21 -29 106 33 27 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -8 -11 -8 11 -4 -5 11 -18 -83 -50 -2 19 -25 -36 -37 LAND (KM) 1313 1442 1526 1596 1646 1705 1606 1433 1550 2026 1588 1148 1388 1912 1828 1345 1221 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.1 26.9 27.7 28.5 29.9 30.0 28.2 26.9 28.9 34.2 37.8 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 54.5 54.1 53.9 54.0 54.7 56.4 56.7 53.8 48.1 44.0 46.0 48.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 8 8 8 8 11 20 32 27 16 25 45 44 22 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 14 CX,CY: 9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 15. 14. 13. 13. 12. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -9. -16. -21. -27. -30. -34. -36. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 24. 24. 24. 23. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 21. 21. 23. 28. 30. 39. 32. 25. 16. 11. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 17. 17. 19. 22. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 33. 49. 53. 57. 61. 61. 68. 61. 53. 44. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.1 55.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 12/05/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.0% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 12/05/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 12/05/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 46 52 63 79 83 87 91 91 98 91 83 74 69 71 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 47 58 74 78 82 86 86 93 86 78 69 64 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 38 49 65 69 73 77 77 84 77 69 60 55 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 37 53 57 61 65 65 72 65 57 48 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT