* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 35 34 34 35 36 37 38 40 41 44 47 49 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 35 34 34 35 36 37 38 40 41 44 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 7 10 19 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 0 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 232 224 230 242 247 272 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 127 127 127 125 122 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 119 120 120 118 113 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.4 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 44 45 46 47 45 46 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 22 25 21 7 -26 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -12 -16 0 14 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 4 6 9 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1805 1836 1869 1936 2007 2178 2311 2424 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 14 18 15 15 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 14. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 34.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.5% 9.0% 7.5% 5.5% 8.6% 8.7% 8.9% Logistic: 7.7% 21.0% 17.0% 3.1% 0.7% 3.7% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 11.8% 8.9% 3.6% 2.1% 4.2% 3.3% 3.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/28/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 35 35 34 34 35 36 37 38 40 41 44 47 49 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 32 32 31 31 32 33 34 35 37 38 41 44 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 27 26 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 36 39 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 19 19 20 21 22 23 25 26 29 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT