* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/28/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 34 34 34 33 33 31 30 30 32 33 35 38 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 34 34 34 33 33 31 30 30 32 33 35 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 36 34 32 29 27 26 25 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 7 11 22 32 36 33 29 28 17 16 16 24 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 0 2 2 -4 -4 -4 -2 3 0 -4 -5 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 210 203 252 241 239 256 261 275 257 255 256 261 259 272 281 293 297 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 125 124 126 122 121 118 117 113 113 115 116 121 124 126 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 116 116 118 115 112 108 103 98 99 104 106 112 114 116 118 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 -56.3 -56.9 -56.5 -56.1 -55.6 -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 45 46 44 45 44 47 51 55 51 46 42 35 30 29 28 29 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 29 28 30 31 3 -34 -86 -101 -97 -76 -41 -9 13 22 22 25 200 MB DIV -7 -1 -11 -14 12 25 30 -3 0 -14 -16 -19 -11 -4 -34 -21 -26 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 3 12 25 27 10 -6 -24 -24 -19 -15 -12 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1805 1793 1783 1798 1838 1906 1906 1859 1750 1619 1496 1449 1513 1617 1768 1891 2044 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.4 19.4 21.9 24.5 26.3 26.8 25.9 24.0 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.3 34.2 34.1 34.2 34.5 35.2 35.4 34.9 33.5 32.0 31.0 30.9 31.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 8 9 12 12 13 9 6 8 11 11 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 11 16 4 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 3 11 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 21. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -13. -14. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 34.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/28/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.11 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 9.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 7.5% 6.2% Logistic: 5.3% 20.2% 12.7% 2.4% 0.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 10.7% 6.6% 0.8% 0.3% 3.4% 3.3% 2.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/28/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 33 34 34 34 33 33 31 30 30 32 33 35 38 40 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 31 31 30 30 28 27 27 29 30 32 35 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 27 27 26 26 24 23 23 25 26 28 31 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 21 20 20 18 17 17 19 20 22 25 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT