* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/27/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 30 31 31 31 29 27 27 29 30 33 35 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 30 31 31 31 29 27 27 29 30 33 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 27 26 24 22 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 3 5 8 14 25 36 32 33 27 25 16 17 20 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 1 4 0 -4 -3 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 235 243 265 248 253 259 274 266 255 250 256 266 283 266 295 297 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 127 125 124 125 122 119 118 117 112 113 116 115 119 122 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 118 116 115 117 114 110 107 102 97 100 104 105 108 111 113 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -55.9 -56.6 -56.8 -56.6 -56.0 -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 42 45 47 46 45 47 48 53 54 51 47 39 33 30 27 28 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 7 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 25 24 25 12 -15 -59 -91 -102 -78 -57 -35 4 20 24 23 200 MB DIV -25 -8 -3 -7 -15 20 17 26 -10 -15 -20 -14 -27 -13 -30 -35 -25 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 1 7 14 28 18 5 -12 -21 -18 -15 -11 -8 -2 LAND (KM) 1819 1795 1782 1783 1797 1890 1925 1921 1848 1743 1612 1513 1479 1524 1592 1696 1807 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.5 18.1 20.3 22.9 25.3 26.8 26.9 25.8 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.4 34.2 34.1 34.1 34.2 34.9 35.5 35.6 34.7 33.3 31.9 31.2 31.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 10 13 13 12 8 5 8 10 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 9 10 13 3 1 3 1 0 0 2 0 2 7 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -0. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 34.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/27/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 10.8% 7.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 27.5% 19.9% 5.0% 1.8% 8.4% 5.7% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 13.1% 9.2% 3.8% 0.6% 2.8% 4.7% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/27/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 28 30 31 31 31 29 27 27 29 30 33 35 37 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 28 29 29 29 27 25 25 27 28 31 33 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 25 25 25 23 21 21 23 24 27 29 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 18 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT