* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/27/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 45 49 50 48 45 44 44 44 45 46 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 45 49 50 48 45 44 44 44 45 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 41 42 40 37 34 32 30 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 3 3 3 2 11 21 25 33 25 28 22 20 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 0 -5 0 3 5 2 -1 -2 -3 0 2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 51 44 31 3 42 19 247 248 267 275 261 259 251 258 259 265 264 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.4 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 131 132 131 128 128 122 122 121 118 117 115 115 115 114 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 119 122 122 120 120 114 112 111 106 103 101 102 102 101 99 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -56.1 -56.7 -56.4 -56.3 -55.9 -55.8 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 45 49 48 49 51 49 47 47 48 48 52 56 53 46 39 38 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 35 32 30 14 14 1 -20 -65 -97 -105 -84 -54 -34 -2 0 200 MB DIV -25 -20 -21 -22 -2 0 13 2 18 -13 9 7 -38 -5 -11 -26 -35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 12 19 17 7 -7 -9 -10 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 1916 1901 1892 1879 1853 1847 1902 2013 2078 2103 2056 1953 1817 1677 1585 1534 1514 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.6 14.0 15.0 16.3 17.9 19.7 21.6 23.6 24.9 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.3 35.1 35.0 34.9 34.7 34.7 35.2 36.1 36.9 37.3 36.9 35.8 34.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 3 4 6 8 10 10 10 9 8 6 8 7 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 19 17 14 16 10 8 3 4 1 2 1 2 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 24. 25. 23. 20. 19. 19. 19. 20. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 35.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/27/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.4% 7.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 12.9% 12.4% 7.8% 1.8% 11.1% 12.6% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.2% 6.8% 4.8% 0.6% 3.8% 7.5% 2.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/27/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/27/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 32 38 45 49 50 48 45 44 44 44 45 46 48 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 42 46 47 45 42 41 41 41 42 43 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 38 42 43 41 38 37 37 37 38 39 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 34 35 33 30 29 29 29 30 31 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT