* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/26/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 48 55 58 57 56 54 52 52 52 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 48 55 58 57 56 54 52 52 52 52 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 43 46 47 46 43 40 37 34 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 4 5 4 3 3 10 15 20 26 27 22 25 21 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 -1 -1 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 2 -6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 7 8 24 18 18 329 321 237 250 266 287 290 284 273 256 251 245 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 129 128 129 128 128 128 123 122 121 120 120 119 118 116 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 118 117 118 118 119 119 114 112 110 108 106 105 104 102 100 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -56.1 -56.4 -56.6 -56.2 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 42 43 47 50 47 48 48 45 44 43 45 48 52 55 54 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 26 39 40 39 33 15 5 -5 -14 -43 -62 -78 -84 -91 -71 -62 200 MB DIV -14 -24 -29 -26 -32 -4 8 9 1 8 -10 3 5 20 -13 -25 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 7 7 9 9 2 0 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1968 1956 1937 1919 1911 1927 1911 1966 2059 2172 2214 2271 2317 2249 2138 2016 1943 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.7 14.2 15.1 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.6 20.9 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.3 35.8 36.6 37.6 38.6 39.4 39.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 1 4 6 6 8 7 8 6 6 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 23 15 15 12 9 11 9 8 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 23. 30. 33. 32. 31. 29. 27. 27. 27. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 35.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/26/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.6% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 18.5% 25.4% 16.8% 2.9% 15.2% 7.2% 6.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 13.6% 5.4% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 15.2% 13.3% 5.7% 1.0% 5.4% 2.5% 2.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/26/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/26/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 39 48 55 58 57 56 54 52 52 52 52 53 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 45 52 55 54 53 51 49 49 49 49 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 40 47 50 49 48 46 44 44 44 44 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 31 38 41 40 39 37 35 35 35 35 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT