* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/26/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 46 53 55 54 49 45 41 40 39 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 46 53 55 54 49 45 41 40 39 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 40 42 42 38 34 29 25 22 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 2 3 7 5 10 14 25 32 34 39 36 21 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 1 0 -4 -6 -4 -1 0 0 0 -5 -8 1 3 1 SHEAR DIR 8 349 340 346 327 290 293 267 253 256 275 272 263 259 264 265 255 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 125 126 126 125 126 125 121 119 120 118 118 116 114 111 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 112 114 115 115 114 117 116 112 110 111 108 106 103 99 96 95 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.5 -56.0 -56.4 -56.5 -56.9 -56.8 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 44 41 43 47 49 47 49 45 48 49 55 59 63 60 54 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 26 31 41 42 31 21 11 4 -12 -39 -73 -99 -91 -94 -59 -21 200 MB DIV -24 -26 -27 -32 -26 -22 10 19 27 11 -6 17 19 -5 -13 2 5 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 7 18 13 12 3 -5 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1966 1966 1956 1957 1948 1936 1922 1944 2008 2069 2097 2065 1963 1823 1683 1565 1475 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.4 15.1 16.2 17.5 19.0 20.8 22.9 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.7 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.6 36.1 36.7 37.2 37.0 35.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 2 2 4 6 7 8 11 11 10 9 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 10 9 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 8. 4. -1. -5. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 21. 28. 30. 29. 24. 20. 16. 15. 14. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 35.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/26/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.6% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 9.3% 13.5% 6.6% 0.8% 6.4% 4.1% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 13.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 11.4% 8.2% 2.2% 0.3% 2.3% 1.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/26/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/26/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 37 46 53 55 54 49 45 41 40 39 40 41 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 43 50 52 51 46 42 38 37 36 37 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 38 45 47 46 41 37 33 32 31 32 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 30 37 39 38 33 29 25 24 23 24 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT