* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/26/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 47 55 57 56 53 49 48 43 40 39 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 47 55 57 56 53 49 48 43 40 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 43 43 41 37 33 29 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 4 2 4 7 9 11 20 28 31 33 35 38 34 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 2 0 -2 -7 -6 -1 0 0 0 -2 -7 -6 0 4 SHEAR DIR 51 13 2 341 346 295 277 264 241 251 254 256 244 255 248 227 234 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 126 125 127 125 126 125 122 118 121 120 121 118 117 113 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 111 115 114 116 113 117 116 113 109 112 110 109 104 102 98 99 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.5 -56.2 -56.5 -56.7 -56.9 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 43 44 43 44 48 49 49 49 48 49 54 61 65 66 65 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 11 9 10 8 7 6 4 5 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 24 29 43 40 28 20 19 2 -28 -58 -72 -71 -50 -40 -8 200 MB DIV -36 -23 -28 -42 -44 -30 -4 16 39 3 19 23 32 4 8 13 16 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 10 12 16 17 13 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 1977 1965 1966 1956 1947 1938 1924 1922 1961 2035 2090 2119 2064 1956 1831 1708 1608 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.1 14.7 15.8 17.1 18.6 20.4 22.6 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.4 35.7 36.3 37.1 37.5 36.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 0 2 2 3 1 5 6 7 9 11 12 12 10 8 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 18 17 17 17 16 11 7 5 2 6 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 6. 2. -2. -6. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -15. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 30. 32. 31. 28. 24. 23. 18. 15. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 35.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/26/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 12.1% 16.8% 8.3% 1.3% 8.3% 5.5% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 10.8% 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.7% 7.1% 2.8% 0.5% 3.1% 1.9% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/26/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/26/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 40 47 55 57 56 53 49 48 43 40 39 38 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 44 52 54 53 50 46 45 40 37 36 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 39 47 49 48 45 41 40 35 32 31 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 39 41 40 37 33 32 27 24 23 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT