* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/25/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 49 57 62 63 62 61 59 58 57 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 49 57 62 63 62 61 59 58 57 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 50 52 51 48 46 42 39 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 8 5 3 5 2 7 10 16 19 23 28 20 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 2 3 0 -4 -5 -5 0 1 1 0 -1 -2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 71 56 38 41 47 64 309 346 245 259 263 274 257 262 263 279 262 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 127 127 128 128 129 128 130 125 122 122 121 118 119 115 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 115 116 118 117 118 119 121 116 113 113 111 106 107 103 104 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -55.9 -56.3 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 46 48 54 51 55 52 51 51 56 59 64 61 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 11 15 20 20 34 26 11 1 -5 -15 -42 -67 -92 -94 -89 -61 200 MB DIV -27 -41 -32 -28 -44 -37 -37 10 14 11 -1 4 38 10 -6 -27 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 8 12 18 5 -4 -8 LAND (KM) 1949 1968 1955 1944 1914 1862 1862 1949 2018 2064 2151 2217 2249 2168 2030 1828 1638 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.3 14.2 13.9 13.4 13.4 14.2 15.3 16.6 17.9 19.4 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.1 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.2 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.3 36.7 37.5 38.3 38.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 2 3 1 2 5 6 7 8 10 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 18 17 17 17 18 26 19 14 12 6 6 5 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 24. 32. 37. 38. 37. 36. 34. 33. 32. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 36.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/25/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 6.9% 6.0% 1.8% 0.5% 3.4% 6.3% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 2.1% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/25/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/25/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 41 49 57 62 63 62 61 59 58 57 57 58 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 38 46 54 59 60 59 58 56 55 54 54 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 41 49 54 55 54 53 51 50 49 49 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 32 40 45 46 45 44 42 41 40 40 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT