* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/25/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 46 53 61 63 64 64 62 60 59 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 46 53 61 63 64 64 62 60 59 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 41 47 52 54 52 49 45 42 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 10 9 9 6 4 2 2 3 11 15 22 24 25 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 -4 -2 0 4 1 2 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 83 70 60 50 37 50 12 346 314 257 247 260 257 270 230 222 219 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 128 129 131 129 130 130 131 127 122 121 120 118 118 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 114 117 118 122 117 120 122 122 118 112 112 110 106 103 100 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 48 46 46 50 50 52 53 54 57 56 54 55 53 55 57 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 9 9 7 6 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 13 18 23 34 31 29 15 0 -3 -10 -42 -64 -80 -100 -88 200 MB DIV -24 -32 -47 -36 -25 -49 -33 0 -4 12 11 10 2 35 -17 -9 -8 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 12 13 13 5 0 LAND (KM) 1911 1950 1950 1937 1915 1850 1806 1839 1913 1998 2051 2128 2199 2189 2136 2069 1994 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.4 13.0 13.3 14.0 15.2 16.4 17.8 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 36.5 36.5 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.7 36.9 37.3 37.7 38.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 1 2 2 3 0 2 5 6 7 7 9 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 20 19 18 17 18 17 19 29 22 14 13 6 3 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 21. 28. 36. 38. 39. 39. 37. 35. 34. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 36.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/25/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 9.1% 7.0% 2.9% 1.2% 5.4% 6.6% 12.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.9% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 1.9% 2.2% 4.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/25/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/25/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 46 53 61 63 64 64 62 60 59 59 61 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 44 51 59 61 62 62 60 58 57 57 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 40 47 55 57 58 58 56 54 53 53 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 32 39 47 49 50 50 48 46 45 45 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT